Enphase Energy's Prospects: Analyst Foresees Recovery And Growth Despite Near-Term Market Slowdown

Mizuho Securities analyst Maheep Mandloi initiated coverage on Enphase Energy Inc ENPH with a Buy rating with a price target of $131.

The analyst notes that ENPH has differentiated patent-protected technology, a strong position in the U.S. residential solar market, and sees growth opportunities in battery storage shipments with inverters.

The analyst notes near-term demand slowness and inventory destocking are priced in.

The analyst expects international revenues to account for ~38% of their solar revenue estimate by FY25 (vs. 28% in 2022) on the expected expansion of operational presence and dealer networks in Europe and other markets. 

Mandloi also estimates ENPH's share of battery revenues to increase to 26% by FY25 (vs. 10% in 2023), led by the ability to upsell batteries to long-tail installers.

On the other hand, the analyst expects FY24 revenues to decline by 18% Y/Y owing to a weaker demand outlook and inventory destocking in the U.S. and Europe. 

Nevertheless, the analyst projects demand growth to return in H2 FY24 and a nominal 8%-10% sector growth annually to resume in 2025.

Consequently, Mandloi sees revenue and adjusted EPS of $2.325 billion and $4.57 in FY23 and $1.917 billion and $4.70 in FY24.

Last month, ENPH reported Q3 FY23 EPS of $1.02, missing the $1.03 estimate and revenue of $551.1 million, which fell short of the $566.02 million estimate.

Price Action: ENPH shares are trading lower by 0.54% at $97.96 on the last check Tuesday.