Taiwan's Political Future Hangs In Balance As These Three Factions Battle To Replace Tsai Ing-Wen

Taiwan’s major opposition parties are vying for power, aiming to unseat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the upcoming 2024 elections. This political shakeup comes as billionaire and Apple supplier Foxconn’s founder drops out of the presidential race.

What Happened: According to a CNBC report on Sunday, three main parties are competing in the elections after Foxconn’s founder, Terry Gou, withdrew his bid for presidency hours before the nomination deadline last Friday.

An attempt at creating a pro-China alliance between the Kuomintang and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party failed, as the parties couldn’t settle on a combined ticket leader.

This squabble has seemingly strengthened the ruling DPP’s position, which leads to independent opinion polls. Taiwan’s political structure allows for direct election of the president and vice president, who may serve two consecutive four-year terms.

The upcoming election takes place amid an increase in China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait and other surrounding waters. China views the election as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline”.

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Taiwan’s election results will influence U.S.-China relations and security in the Asia-Pacific region. U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a move that has irked Beijing.

Competing in the Jan. 13 polls are the DPP’s presidential nominee, Lai Ching-te, and vice-presidential candidate, Hsiao Bi-Khim. Also in the running are Ko Wen-je, chairman of the Taiwan People’s Party, and Hou Yu-ih, the presidential candidate for the Kuomintang.

Why It Matters: The stakes for Taiwan’s 2024 elections are high. After Foxconn’s founder Terry Gou abruptly exited the presidential race, the opposition parties’ failure to form a pro-China alliance has potentially given the ruling DPP an edge. As these parties vie for power, China’s increasing military presence in nearby waters highlights the geopolitical implications.

Earlier this year, China upped the pressure on Taiwan with military drills and trade threats, indicating its interest in the election’s outcome. Furthermore, the U.S.’s commitment to defend Taiwan in case of an invasion by China has heightened tensions, proving that the election results will ripple far beyond Taiwan’s borders.

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