Crude Conundrum: US Oil Production Hits Record Levels, But Energy Stocks Aren't Pumping

U.S. oil production is at record levels, as data from the Energy Information Administration puts 2023 production of crude oil on its way to break pre-pandemic records.

The U.S. has been the top world producer of crude oil since the mid-2010s, a fact that has gone under the radar for much of the public. The latest data, from September, show a daily production of 13.2 million barrels a day, beating the previous record set in November 2019 of 13 million barrels.

The global oil market entered bear territory last week, even as OPEC+ nations agreed on new oil cuts. U.S. record oil production is helping push the needle towards declining prices as stockpiles in the U.S. beat market expectations.  

On Monday, the national average price for regular gasoline was $3.15 per gallon. This average peaked at $4.84 per gallon in June 2022 during a period of extremely high inflation and dipped to as low as $2.97 in December 2022.

According to Axios, the Biden administration walks a thin line between publicizing its efforts to ramp up production and jeopardizing its strong position against global warming.

“I’m going to get those gas prices down again, I promise you,” said President Joe Biden during a September speech aimed at harnessing support for his reelection.

While the president is keen on using oil prices as a way to increase support for the upcoming election, he has held back on taking credit for the increased production, as it conflicts directly with efforts to bring down carbon emissions, which are a key point in the Democratic political agenda.

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Oil markets took a dive last week after Sultan Al Jaber, president of the COP 28 climate conference, expressed skepticism about the relationship between fossil fuels and climate change.

The United States Oil ETF USO is down 8.4% in the past month but recovered 0.4% on Monday. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF UCO gained 1.3% on Monday but added 13.1% in losses over the past month. Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO is also down 8.4% in the past month, recovering 0.9% on Monday.

Al Jaber has been one of the most controversial figures of the climate conference given his role as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, a United Arab Emirates state-owned oil company that ranks as the 12th largest producer in the world and 14th largest greenhouse gas polluter.

Exxon Mobil Corp XOM was also under the spotlight of criticism during the COP28 as CEO Darren Woods defended a strategy of carbon capture to fight climate change, which the IEA has called "implausible."

Exxon shares are down 5% in the past month, and closed 0.07% higher on Monday. Other U.S.-listed oil giants are also down this month as US oil production increased include: ConocoPhillips COP is down 2.7% while Devon Energy Corp DVN is down 2.2% and Shell PLC SHEL is down 3.2%.

In spite of heavy pressure from climate groups to reduce emissions, global crude oil production increased by a record 5.4% rate in 2022.

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