Clinical Advancements In Kura Oncology's Lead Program Ziftomenib Hint at Upsurge in Success Likelihood: Analyst

Mizuho initiated coverage on Kura Oncology Inc KURA, spotlighting the potential of ziftomenib as a first-in-class treatment for relapsed/refractory (r/r) NPM1-m acute myeloid leukemia (AML). 

This form of AML accounts for approximately 30% of AML diagnoses. 

The analysis emphasizes that through further clinical advancements and the prospect of increasing the probability of success as more data emerges, the potential for a rise in the likelihood of success (PoS) exists, thereby positively impacting the valuation and potential upside in the share price.

Further trials investigating ziftomenib in combinations, alternate settings, and various mutational drivers of AML could potentially expand the market reach twofold. 

The primary concern surrounding the clinical program arises from data release indicating robust effectiveness in the NPM1-m population but not in the smaller subset of KMT2A-r AML. 

Mizuho analyst anticipates this concern will diminish with larger datasets and combination studies validating efficacy, ultimately elevating ziftomenib's Probability of Success (PoS).

Analysts Mara Goldstein and Jerry Gong initiate with a Buy rating and a price target of $26.

The initial data sparked inquiries into the variations in activity among different AML populations. 

Analysts view the data expected in 1Q24 as pivotal in tackling this issue, aiming to alleviate uncertainties and shed light on the potential of the ziftomenib combination treatment in AML. This strategy could broaden the market scope from $1+ billion to $3+ billion.

Price Action: KURA shares are up 9.73% at $13.79 on the last check Friday.