Biden Vs. Trump: One Candidate Emerges As More Realistically Viable For 2024 Win But May Not Be Best Bet For His Party, New Poll Reveals

Donald Trump continues to maintain a slim lead over President Joe Biden, but a new nationwide poll suggests a potential twist in the tale. In a two-way race, 49% of respondents favored Trump, while 44% supported Biden, while 5% expressed a preference for other candidates, and 1% indicated they would not vote.

What Happened: These results aligned with a late-October survey but shifted more in Trump’s favor compared to the late-August numbers, where he led by a 47%-46% margin. 

The CNN-commissioned study, conducted from Jan 25-30 on the SSRS Opinion Panel through web and telephone, gathered responses from 1,212 U.S. adults aged 18 or older.

When Trump was replaced with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the prospects brightened for Republicans. In a head-to-head matchup with Biden, Haley led by a 52%-39% margin, with 7% opting for “others” and 2% indicating they would not vote. Haley’s lead increased from a six-percentage-point margin in late October and late August to a current 13-point advantage.

Trump secured the top spot when respondents considered the realistic chance of winning for each candidate. 75% believed Trump had a realistic chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, while the corresponding numbers for Biden and Haley were 53% and 50%, respectively.

See Also: Trump Vs. Biden: Close 2024 Election Predicted, Which Candidate Is Losing Ground?

Biden’s Approval A Setback: The survey unveiled a setback for Biden’s approval rating, reaching a nadir of 38%, a sharp decline from the 53% he scored in April 2021. The net disapproval rating was 62%, matching a prior high in mid-2022. About 66% of respondents believed he did not deserve reelection, and 64% of registered voters shared this sentiment.

This data raises concerns about Biden’s reelection prospects, especially when compared to a similar question about Trump in September 2019, where negative responses were at 60% and 58% for respondents and registered voters, respectively.

Following victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump heads to Haley’s home state of South Carolina, where Republican primary elections are set for Feb. 24.

Despite Biden being virtually assured of victory, he intensively campaigns in the state, which was pivotal in reversing his fortunes during the 2020 election cycle. The other contenders for the Democratic nomination from the party are author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.)

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This illustration was generated using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.