Crypto bettors on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, think Donald Trump and President Joe Biden will come up in Tucker Carlson's yet-to-air interview with Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
But they see three other topics as even more likely.
What Happened: The market titled "What will Putin say during his interview with Tucker?" gives traders 12 different options to bet on.
Traders rate the chances of Putin saying "Trump" five or more times 42% - as high as five or more mentions of "Biden." Put differently, traders are confident the current and former U.S. President will be mentioned. But whether Putin mentions their names five or more times is close to a coinflip.
The three most likely terms that need only a single mention are:
- "Zelensky" at 78%.
- "Nazi" at 75%.
- "Nuclear" at 73%.
Market rules stipulate that pluralization and possessives count and only the included translation will be used for resolution.
Over $189,000 have been traded on the market, higher than the $157,000 on the market betting on whether the interview will be released by Friday.
The interview will be posted Thursday, according to Justin Wells, head of programming at Carlson’s streaming network. Unconfirmed reports announced 6 p.m. EST as release time.
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Why It Matters: The interview announcement generated a strong response across the political and media landscape.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Carlson a "useful idiot" in an MSNBC interview on Thursday. Though Carlson urged viewers to watch the interview to "decide for yourself," prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space harshly criticized Carlson.
Bitcoin podcast host Peter McCormack called Carlson a "chat show host," pushing back against the "Putin simps" in his comments on X (formerly Twitter). Ethereum advocate Adam Cochran predicted Russian propaganda narratives to be echoed in the interview. Notably, both figures received strong backlash from their own followers, who seemed to side mostly with Carlson.
The prediction market options foreshadow possible topics and how they could be framed. Putin has labeled the Ukrainian government a "neo-nazi regime," a narrative traders think he will be allowed to pick up again in the interview. The several mentions of American presidents suggests traders could see U.S. politics be a significant topic.
Less likely alternatives include mentions of "trans" at 27%, "gay" at 25% and Belarussian president Lukashenko at 19%. The least likely are former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at 10% and imprisoned anti-corruption activist and former opposition politican Alexey Navalny at 10%.
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