Swipe Right On Bumble: Analyst Shares Q4 Insights Amid Leadership Changes

Dating and social networking app Bumble BMBL will report its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 27. Wall Street expects 11 cents in EPS and $275.29 million in revenues as the company reports after market hours.

The company’s stock is down 11% so far this year, while rival Match Group MTCH — the company behind Tinder, Hinge, Match, and Plenty of Fish — is up 1%. Since the third-quarter earnings as well, Bumble stock is down 1%, while Match stock is up 23%.

Bumble has recently undergone significant changes in its executive leadership team. On Jan. 2, Lidiane Jones replaced Whitney Wolfe Herd as the CEO of the company.

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On Feb. 21, the company announced that it has appointed Ali Rayl as chief product officer, Antoine Leblond as chief technology officer, David Ard as chief people officer, and Selby Drummond as chief marketing officer.

The Bumble Analyst: JPMorgan analyst Cory A Carpenter maintains an “Overweight” rating on the stock.

The Bumble Thesis: Carpenter acknowledges investor hesitancy prompted by underwhelming industry results, but he contends that Bumble is poised to meet the lower end of its fourth-quarter revenue guidance, projecting around $276 million. Despite concerns raised by Hinge regarding pronounced fourth-quarter seasonality, Carpenter remains cautiously optimistic, stating, “We don't think trends are quite as bad as third-party data suggests.”

Carpenter anticipates a nuanced shift in Bumble’s 2024 outlook, from initial perceptions of conservatism due to CEO changes to more recent worries about a potential guide down. He forecasts a conservative update with low-teens % growth (approximately 12-14%), aligning with Bumble’s initial outlook. In his words, “While we'd characterize this as better than feared based on our conversations, investors could remain skeptical.”

Carpenter also expresses confidence in the 2024 margin outlook, foreseeing 50-100 basis points of year-over-year leverage. His investment thesis centers on Bumble’s ability to navigate shifts in the online dating landscape. Carpenter emphasizes key topics for scrutiny in the upcoming report, including:

• Jones’ priorities,
• The 2024 product roadmap
• Payer growth
• AI initiatives,
• Macro impacts
• Market share trends
• International expansion
• Badoo’s relaunch,
• Buybacks, and
• The EU app store fee change.

BMBL Price Action: Bumble stock was trading at $13.11 at the close of trading day on Feb. 23.

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