Movie theater company AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC is set to report fourth-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.
Here's a look at the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect AMC to report fourth-quarter revenue of $1.046 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
AMC reported revenue of $990.9 million in last year's fourth quarter and had revenue of $1.406 billion in the most recently reported third quarter. The company has beaten analysts' revenue estimates in 10 straight quarters.
Analysts expect AMC to report a loss of 57 cents per share in the fourth quarter, compared to a loss of $1.40 per share in last year's fourth quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in five straight quarters and nine of the last 10 quarters.
The fourth-quarter results will come after AMC reported its best third-quarter revenue and EBITDA in company history.
Related Link: Global Box Office 2024 To Decline 5% In 2023: Bad News For AMC, Cinemark?
What Analysts Are Saying: The movie theater company could have gained market share in the fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese said in a recent investor note.
"AMC expanded its market share in 2023 and is positioned to maintain or expand further on its 22% market share with its vast network of premium large-format screens and concert movie distribution," Reese said.
The analyst, who has a Neutral rating and $6 price target on the stock, said negatives for the company include its heavy debt load and the lack of a dividend payout.
One positive noted by the analyst is with the drop in AMC's share price, shares are trading closer to its historical multiple, before it became a meme stock. The analyst notes that AMC still trades at a significant premium to its competitors.
Reese said the inclusion of concert films from Taylor Swift and Beyonce will be positive in the fourth quarter and could lead to higher average ticket prices.
"2024 will likely be tumultuous, with pockets of strength offset by volume holes. We estimate that 2024 North American box office will end down 7% YoY to $8.3 billion after a 21% YoY rise in 2023."
The analyst said many 2024 movies were delayed to 2025 as a result of the Hollywood Strike.
Key Items to Watch: The fourth-quarter results from AMC come with a weaker blockbuster slate of movies in 2023 compared to 2022.
Here were the top five grossing movies domestically in the fourth quarter of 2022, as reported by BoxOfficeMojo.
- Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: $179.8 million
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes: $159.7 million
- Five Nights at Freddy's: $137.3 million
- Wonka: $133.1 million
- Trolls Band Together: $96.4 million
The fourth quarter had four movies gross more than $100 million, but the highest total came in under $200 million. The fourth quarter of 2022 was led by "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" and "Avatar: The Way of Water," which grossed $436.5 million and $401.0 million domestically respectively during that quarter. The fourth quarter of 2022 also had "Black Adam," which grossed $168.1 million in the quarter.
Box office revenue could face a tough comparable period, and the higher ticket prices for the Swift concert film might not be enough to offset results.
The Taylor Swift concert film broke records and has grossed $180.8 million domestically and $261.7 million worldwide. Discussion of the film and its upcoming launch on Disney+ could be a major topic during the quarterly results.
The Beyonce concert film released in the fourth quarter grossed $33.9 million domestically and $44.0 million worldwide. It could be interesting to hear if this film will go down as a win or disappointment for the company.
Releasing concert films and experiences and also hosting non-movie related events like sports on the big screen could be an item to watch in the fourth quarter results.
"Should the exhibitors book alternative content in open release slate windows this year, that would provide some cushion to the summer box office," Reese said.
Discussion of cash on hand, liquidity, and upcoming debt expiration dates will also be widely watched by investors and analysts.
AMC Price Action: AMC shares trade at $4.44 versus a 52-week trading range of $3.59 to $75.26. Shares of the movie theater stock are down 93% in the last year.
Image created using artificial intelligence with MidJourney.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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