Viking Therapeutics' Weight Loss Study Data Outperformed Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly Studies, Analysts Say

Viking Therapeutics Inc VKTX recently released top-line results from a successful Phase 2 weight loss trial.

Patients receiving VK2735 demonstrated statistically significant reductions in body weight compared with placebo. 

The San Diego-based company also announced a capital raise of $350 million. Underwriters have an option to purchase up to an additional $52.5 million.

With the remarkable weight loss observed in Viking’s Phase 2 VK2735 trial, HC Wainwright and William Blair present a comparison with percent body weight changes from baseline at the 13-week mark in the VENTURE trial against Novo Nordisk A/S’s NVO Phase 3 STEP-1 trial with Wegovy (semaglutide) and Eli Lilly And Co’s LLY Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 trial involving Zepbound (tirzepatide). 

HC Wainwright says that VK2735 outperforms these two other studies. 

When examining VENTURE against STEP 1, a 9.1% reduction in body weight change from baseline at the 2.5 mg dose in the VENTURE study is observed, compared to only a ~6% reduction in the STEP 1 trial. 

Similarly, compared with SURMOUNT-1, the 5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg doses in VENTURE all achieve greater weight loss reductions from baseline. 

This comparison between tirzepatide and VK2735 is particularly intriguing, considering both molecules share the same mechanism of action as dual GLP-1/GIP agonists. 

HC Wainwright speculates that this difference may stem from potential distinctions in the molecular design of VK2735 compared to tirzepatide. 

Viking has yet to disclose the chemical structure of VK2735. It is known that VK2735 provides favorable exposure levels in patients and boasts a long half-life. This structural aspect could be a key factor driving the efficacy levels observed in Viking’s Phase 2 VENTURE data.

William Blair revises its stance, suggesting VK2735 may demonstrate a more favorable efficacy profile than Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Previously, they considered both drugs clinically equivalent. 

William Blair concludes that VK2735’s value will be optimized when managed by a large pharmaceutical company capable of navigating the reimbursement landscape driven by rebates and discounts.

William Blair increased the peak sales estimate for VK2735 to $14.4 billion in the U.S. For Europe, the sales estimate is $7.2 billion. The previous estimates were $10.1 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.

Price Action: VKTX shares are up 9.34% at $92.99 the last check Wednesday.

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