Powell Stresses Need For 'More Data' Before Considering Rate Cuts, Downplays Recession, Commercial Real Estate Risks

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday he would like to have more confidence on inflation moving back sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target before unleashing the policy easing down the road.

During a Q&A session with the House Financial Services Committee, Powell highlighted the significant progress made in controlling inflation.

“We’ve made quite good progress on that over just the past year,” Powell said, while noting the economy’s achievement in nearing 50-year low unemployment rates.

“We want to see a little bit more data so that we can become confident and so that we can take that step of beginning to reduce policy rates,” Powell said.

Powell revealed the number of rate cuts will depend on the evolution of the economy, recalling that the latest Fed’s projections indicate a median preference for three rate cuts in 2024.

Powell Dispels Recession Fears

Powell dismissed fears of an imminent recession. With last year’s growth exceeding 3% and forecasts indicating continued solid growth, Powell said: “There’s no reason to think that the U.S. economy is in some kind of short-term risk of falling into recession.”

Powell acknowledged there’s always a chance that an economy will fall into recession, yet he firmly stated that “the possibility … is not elevated at the current time.”

Challenges In Commercial Real Estate

Responding to U.S. Rep. James A. Himes (D-Ct.), Powell tackled the concerns surrounding the commercial real estate market, particularly highlighting the distress caused by excess office supply and changing retail dynamics due to shifts toward remote work.

Powell outlined the Fed’s proactive measures in engaging with banks that have significant exposures to commercial real estate, ensuring they have robust plans to manage potential losses.

“It will be a problem to work through for several years,” Powell said, noting the impact is likely to be more pronounced among medium- and small-sized banks rather than the larger institutions.

Market Reactions

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, extended declines for the sessions, trading down 0.5% following Powell’s remarks.

Stocks inched higher, with the S&P 500 Index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, rising 0.8%. Small caps outperformed larger-cap peers, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, up 1%.

Gold, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, rose to $2,150/oz achieving fresh record highs, as 10-year Treasury yields moved down to a one-month low at 4.1%.

Bitcoin BTC/USD traded at $66,500, up 5% for the day.

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Illustration created using photos from Unsplash and the Federal Reserve Flickr account.