Warren Buffett's Prediction Comes True: Japanese Banks To Profit From BoJ's Positive Rates

The banking sector in Japan stands on the brink of significant profit gains following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to move away from negative interest rates, a policy in place for the last eight years.

This landmark shift heralds a period of windfall profits for leading financial institutions such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. MUFG, with their substantial reserves at the central bank now poised to generate higher returns.

Unpacking The Financial Windfall

Recent reports from Bloomberg reveal that top Japanese banks have been sitting on a combined reserve of 106.7 trillion yen ($712 billion) at the BoJ, earning no interest. Additionally, they hold another 79.4 trillion yen in deposits, which have been yielding a 0.1% return.

With the BoJ’s latest policy announcement to offer 0.1% interest on balances exceeding required reserves, these banks could see an increase in annual interest earnings by approximately 100 billion yen, a significant boost to their income, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Optimistic Projections From Analysts, But Prices May Have Already Discounted BoJ Move

The positive outlook for Japanese banks has been building momentum since December 2023, spearheaded by Goldman Sachs’ Buy ratings for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (SMTH).

These banks are considered well-positioned to benefit from the rising yen interest rates, among other favorable developments like corporate governance reform.

Goldman Sachs analyst Makoto Kuroda suggests that Japanese banks could witness a 30% surge in net interest margins, driven by increased interest on excess reserves and a higher loan rate environment.

Just a week ago, Goldman Sachs recommended a bullish stance on Japanese banks, highlighting MUFG for its long-term return on equity potential, SMFG for its short-term valuation appeal, Mizuho for its repricing capabilities, and Resona Holdings as a potential sleeper hit less affected by USD/JPY exchange rate movements.

US-based investors could get exposure to Japanese stocks through the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund EWJ, the iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF EWJV, the Franklin FTSE Japan ETF FLJP and the iShares MSCI Japan SM CAP SWJ

…Warren Buffett Was Already There

Warren Buffett’s foray into Japanese equities began long time ago in July 2019, focusing on investments in five financial conglomerates: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo.

In April 2023, the Oracle of Omaha increased its investment into Japanese equities, somehow anticipating the potential policy shift in interest rates.

These stocks have delivered yen-based returns ranging from 117% for Sumitomo to an impressive 276% for Mitsui since July 2019, showcasing the potential of Japanese stocks under a value investment strategy.

In his latest annual shareholder letter, Buffett reiterated Berkshire Hathaway’s “passive and long-term interest” in these conglomerates, likening their diversified operations to Berkshire’s own business model.

He praised the shareholder-friendly policies of Japanese firms, particularly their practices around share repurchases and dividends.

Buffett highlighted that these companies allocate only about a third of their earnings to dividends, using the retained earnings to expand their business footprint and, selectively, to buy back shares.

Buffett’s investment philosophy, focusing on companies with shareholder-friendly practices and a reluctance to dilute shares, finds resonance in the Japanese banking sector’s current trajectory.

Chart: Buffett-Owned Japanese Stocks Performance Since July 2019

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