Tesla Q1 Deliveries Preview: Analysts Cut Targets, 'Nightmare Quarter For Tesla'

Editor’s Note: This story was corrected to reflect Troy Teslike’s latest first-quarter estimate.

Electric vehicle giant Tesla Inc TSLA is expected to report first-quarter productions and delivery figures next week, which could show a sequential decline from the fourth quarter and a drop after a record-setting year.

Here are what analysts are expecting for Tesla in the first quarter.

Q1 Delivery Estimates: Citing concerns like electric vehicle demand, China and macroeconomic concerns, analysts have been cutting their first-quarter delivery estimates for Tesla.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives recently cut his price target on Tesla from $315 to $300 and cut his estimate for first-quarter and full-year deliveries.

"Let's call it like it is: 1Q deliveries has been a nightmare quarter for Tesla as China demand remains very soft coming out of the gates for 2024," Ives said.

Ives said Tesla's first-quarter delivery numbers "will not be a moment of celebration for the bulls."

Here are current first-quarter estimates from analysts and experts and what their previous estimates were in some cases:

Ives (Wedbush): 425,000 (was 475,000)

Gary Black (Future Fund): 425,000

Troy Teslike (delivery tracker on social media): 420,000 (was 484,000)

Tom Narayan (RBC Capital): 446,000 (was 500,000)

Morgan Stanley: 425,400 (was 469,400)

Deutsche Bank: 414,000 (was 427,000)

George Gianarikas (Canaccord Genuity): 420,000 (441,000)

Several of the analysts also lowered their full-year estimates for deliveries and based on the results from the first quarter, more estimate cuts are likely coming for the full-year.

Related Link: Here’s How Many Vehicles Tesla Has Delivered, Produced In Each Quarter Since 2019

Why It's Important: Tracker Teslike said that over the past three years, first-quarter deliveries have been higher than the fourth-quarter numbers, but that won't be the case this time.

Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 484,507 units. Based on current estimates, the first-quarter deliveries will be significantly lower than that figure. Over the past five years, most quarters have seen sequential growth, barring major economic items or factory shutdowns.

Tesla delivered 1,808,581 units in 2023, passing a company estimate of 1.8 million units. While the company believes it will continue growth in the future with an estimate of 50% compounded annual growth, some years will see lower growth amounts.

"In 2024, our vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas," Tesla previously said.

Tesla shares have suffered in 2024 with a year-to-date decline of 29%. A weak delivery figure from the electric vehicle company next week could send shares down further. This could lead to more analysts and experts turning bearish and likewise, offer a buying opportunity for long-term believers in the company.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares closed at $175.79 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $152.37 to $299.29.

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