Turkish Stock Markets Welcome Change: Will Erdoğan Defeat Prompt Economic Reforms?

Turkey’s stock market dipped on Monday while government bond yields jumped, following a resounding defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) in this weekend’s local elections.

The main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) scored wins in Turkey’s five biggest cities — Istanbul, capital Anakara, Izmir, Bursa and Antalya — leaving Erdoğan facing his biggest political setback since he came to power as prime minister in 2003.

Markets don’t tend to like change, unless change is desperately needed — and with inflation running close to 70%, investors appeared agree with the voters. Equity investors remained upbeat, while the lira currency gained. Bond yields jumped, however, pushing prices lower.

• The country’s main stock index, the BIST 100, initially dipped 0.5%, then turned 0.7% higher.
• On the foreign exchange market the lira climbed 1.2% against the dollar.
• Bond yields jumped, with the benchmark 10-year yield adding 152 basis points to 26.7%.
• The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR, the only exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers exclusive exposure to Turkish shares, gained 2.1% in early trade.

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Istanbul And Ankara Defeats For Erdoğan

In Istanbul, Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who first won the city from the AKP in 2019, held on for the CHP, winning by 10 percentage points.

“Istanbul has delivered its message,” İmamoğlu told supporters gathered in the main city square. “The era of one person's tutelage is over.”

In Ankara, the opposition’s win was even more emphatic, as Mayor Mansur Yavas held the city by securing more than 60% of the vote.

Analysts saw the defeat for Erdoğan as a major pushback by voters against the AKP’s economic record as the rate of inflation in Turkey nears 70%.

Erdoğan served as prime minister between 2003-2014 and, under his presidency since 2014, he presided over a 2017 constitutional referendum that dissolved the senior role of prime minister, leaving the president as the main source of power, following his defeat of an attempted military coup in July 2016.

However, the weekend’s local election results are the first time Erdoğan’s party, described generally has hardline right, although the AKP denies it is Islamist, has suffered a national defeat.

The AKP held on to many of its stronghold districts in the center and east of the country, but Erdoğan acknowledged it had not gone well. He stopped short of marking it down as a defeat, however, calling it “a turning point.”

Although his current presidential term, due to end in 2028, is set to be his last under constitutional law, some political analysts were expecting further constitutional reforms to allow him to run for a further term had the results at these local elections gone better.

U.S. Related Stocks

• The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR, which holds stocks in the country’s major listed companies — including some that have American Depository Receipts on over-the-counter exchanges in the U.S. — was up 2.1%.
• Among the ETF’s biggest stocks, Koc Holdings AS KHOLY, an industrial and financial conglomerate controlled by the Koc family, was up 1.7%.
• Akbank Turk Anonim Sirketi AKBTY, Turkey’s largest financial services group gained 5.8%.
• Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS FOVSY, a motor manufacturer that is jointly owned by Koc Holdings and Ford Motor Company F, was unmoved.
• Turk Hava Yollari AO TKHVY, the domestic listed name for Turkish Airlines, was similarly flat in early trade.

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