Florida's $6B Cannabis Market Anticipates 400% Growth Following Court Decision Allowing Nov. Legalization Ballot

Following the pivotal decision by the Florida Supreme Court, senior analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates released a comprehensive report outlining the potential financial windfalls for cannabis companies in Florida.

Monday's verdict enables the cannabis legalization proposal to be placed on a ballot for voters to decide in the November 2024 election. 

Zuanic's analysis delves deep into the ramifications of such a decision, offering a detailed look at the expected market dynamics and opportunities within the state's burgeoning cannabis sector.

Meet Pablo Zuanic at the upcoming Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference in Florida on April 16 and 17, 2024 at The Diplomat Beach Resort. Mark your calendars – this conference is the go-to event of the year for the cannabis world. Get your tickets now on bzcannabis.com – Prices will increase very soon!

A Pivotal Moment For Florida's Cannabis Industry

The Supreme Court's decision holds the key to unlocking a potential tripling of the total cannabis market in Florida to $6 billion in sales. Zuanic's report calculates the valuation upside for various publicly traded cannabis operators, suggesting a staggering 600% value creation for cannabis company Cansortium CNTMF, translating to seven times its current market capitalization.

Substantial gains are anticipated for several major players in Florida's cannabis market, following Zuanic's projections.

AYR Wellness AYRWF could see an increase of over 400%, iAnthus ITHUF is expected to gain more than 180%, and SNDL SNDL, pending the equitization of Parallel debt, might witness a surge above 160%.

Trulieve's TCNNF valuation could grow by more than 150%, and Planet 13 PLNH might see an uplift of 120%, especially with the pending VidaCann deal in consideration.

With 20 licensees currently operating stores in Florida, of which nine are public, the report anticipates notable upside for other Multi-State Operators (MSOs) as well. Cannabist could see a 65% upside, Cresco CRLBF and Verano VRNOF around 40%, and Curaleaf CURLF a 27% increase.

Zuanic estimates that, if market shares stay the same, Cansortium and SNDL would be the biggest winners in terms of enterprise value (EV), with increases of +261% and +235%, respectively.

Read also: Cannabis Companies Pony Up $15M To Support Florida Legalization Amendment, Adding To Trulieve's $40M 

Mergers And Acquisitions On The Horizon

The report highlights the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, especially among companies looking to expand their footprint or enter the Florida market.

Notable mentions include Cansortium, due to its attractive position with 34 stores, and other large operators like Green Thumb GTBIF and Curaleaf, which may weigh organic expansion against the benefits of M&A to bolster their presence in Florida.

Current Operator Presence, Market Share, And Store Productivity

Trulieve leads the market in flower volume share with 39%, followed by Curaleaf at 10%, Verano at 9%, Surterra at 7%, AYR at 6%, and Cresco at 5%. The remaining 24% of flower volume share is distributed among 14 other operators, with Cansortium, iAnthus, Sanctuary, and VidaCann each holding approximately 3%.

In extract sales, Trulieve also leads with a 33% volume share, followed by AYR (14%), Curaleaf (13%), Surterra (9%), Verano (8%), and Cansortium (5%).

Store productivity varies widely across operators. For instance, despite Trulieve having 21% of all stores, it commands 39% of the flower market share and 33% of the non-flower (extract) market share.

The report indicates diverse growth trajectories among operators. VidaCann showed a significant increase in flower volumes (+267%), Cresco (+157%), AYR (+79%), and Verano (+51%) above the two-year average.

Broad Beneficiary Circle

Beyond direct cannabis sales, service providers such as tech companies -e.g., WM Technology, Inc. MAPS and finance service firms (e.g., NLCP REFI) stand to benefit from the expansion opportunities in Florida.

This points to a wide-reaching impact of potential recreational cannabis legalization, extending beyond growers and retailers to ancillary services that support the cannabis ecosystem.

As the industry eagerly awaits the Supreme Court's decision, the possibilities for growth, consolidation, and strategic realignment loom large, promising a new chapter for Florida's cannabis sector.

Meet Pablo Zuanic and learn more about these essential issues at the upcoming Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference in Florida on April 16 and 17, 2024. The two-day event at The Diplomat Beach Resort will be a chance for entrepreneurs, both large and small, to network, learn, and grow. Renowned for its trendsetting abilities and influence on the future of cannabis, mark your calendars – this conference is the go-to event of the year for the cannabis world. Get your tickets now on bzcannabis.com – Prices will increase very soon!

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