'Forget Bitcoin Price Targets': Crypto Expert Says 30% Of Cycle Top Metrics Are 'High Risk'

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shared a comprehensive list of Bitcoin BTC/USD cycle top signals, highlighting the importance of monitoring these metrics over focusing on price targets.

What Happened: Edwards took to X on Wednesday to discuss the key indicators that could signal a Bitcoin cycle top. “Forget price targets,” Edwards writes, stressing the need to remain “open-minded and nimble” and cautioning against getting "fixated on arbitrary dollar targets or the fear of missing out (FOMO) on a possible super cycle."

Edwards pointed out important metrics to look out for:

• Supply Delta + 90 Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): Watch for a rounded top.
• Long-term Holder Inflation Rate: Currently at 0.5. It still has a lot of room until the 2.0 threshold, which marks a high likelihood of the cycle top being in.
• Hodler Growth Rate (HGR): Cycle tops typically occur when HGR hasn’t made a new high in 6-9 months. Currently, it is 3 months in now.
• Bitcoin Heater: Extended periods of extreme funding/basis/options readings.
• Mayer Multiple: Any readings over 2.5 have marked all the major Bitcoin cycle tops, currently at 1.6.

He also highlighted the Dynamic Range NVT, On-chain Transaction Fees, Net Unrealized PnL (NUPL), Spent Volume 7-10 years, SLRV Ribbons, Dormancy Flow, Percent Addresses in Profit, and U.S. Liquidity.

Also Read: Here’s What Robert Kiyosaki Is Going To Do If Bitcoin Falls To $200 In The ‘Biggest Everything Crash’

Why It Matters: Edwards’ analysis provides a comprehensive guide for crypto enthusiasts and investors to navigate the volatile Bitcoin market. He noted that 30% of the metrics are at high risk, indicating the need for closer monitoring for a cycle top. Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly gains stand at around 5% while its yearly gains are at 134%.

He emphasized that these metrics are more important than any predictions or price targets, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making in the crypto market.

What’s Next: Edwards concludes, "Don’t expect the next cycle top to be the same as the last. Not all metrics will work. Some new metrics will."

The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is a topic expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Popular Crypto Analyst On Holding Bitcoin: ‘It’s Like Chewing Glass 75% Of The Time, Then Snorting Cocaine For The Last 25%’

Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.