Is Amazon Stock Worth Buying Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

Amazon AMZN is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 30.
The company has been rising on its dominant position in the online retail and cloud computing markets. It has been benefiting from the solid momentum across Prime and Amazon Web Services ("AWS"). In addition, expanding generative AI capabilities have been driving the stock.
Strengthening Echo speaker, Fire TV, eero WiFi system and Blink smart security camera offerings are expanding Amazon's presence in the booming smart devices market, which has been a positive. In addition, expanding generative AI capabilities have been driving the stock.
Let us delve into the fundamental strength of Amazon ahead of its first-quarter results.

Prime, Retail & Streaming Momentum to Note

Amazon's solid Prime momentum, along with its strengthening distribution network, are expected to have aided its online retail business' performance in the quarter under review.
Prime benefits, including a strong loyalty system, customer-friendly offers, quick grocery delivery services, and robust Prime Free One-Day and Prime Free Same-Day Delivery services, are expected to have aided Amazon's customer momentum in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for online store sales is pegged at $54.8 billion, implying growth of 7.2% from the year-ago reported figure.
Apart from this, strengthening relationships with third-party sellers on the back of solid solution offerings are likely to have been a positive. The consensus mark for sales generated by third-party sellers is pegged at $34.5 billion, suggesting growth of 15.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
AMZN's growing efforts in grocery retail are expected to have benefited its quarterly performance.
Solid momentum across the company's Fresh grocery stores across the United States is anticipated to have contributed well to AMZN's grocery sales in the first quarter. A solid network of Whole Foods Store and Amazon Go stores is likely to have driven the company's physical store sales.
The consensus mark for the third quarter's physical store sales is pegged at $5.06 billion, indicating growth of 3.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The strength in Prime Video is expected to have contributed well. Expanding original content, regional content and the overall content portfolio on Prime Video are expected to have driven the Prime subscription in the to-be-reported quarter.
We expect retail perks associated with Prime, along with strength in Prime Video, to have continued aiding Amazon's subscription revenue growth in the quarter under review. The growing momentum in Amazon Music is anticipated to have been another positive.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for subscription service sales is pegged at $10.7 billion, reflecting growth of 10.6% from the year-ago reported figure.

AWS Portfolio Momentum to Consider

Amazon's robust AWS segment is expected to have driven its first-quarter performance.
The strengthening cloud services portfolio on the back of generative AI technology and expanding data center networks is likely to have aided the performance of AWS in the to-be-reported quarter.
The increasing number of AWS regions and availability zones is expected to have been a positive.
All these factors are expected to have helped Amazon win customers in the first quarter.

Guidance & Estimates

For first-quarter 2024, Amazon expects net sales between $138 billion and $143.5 billion. Net sales are expected to grow 8-13% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. Management projects a favorable foreign exchange impact of 40 bps.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales is pegged at $142.53 billion, indicating growth of 11.9% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at 82 cents per share, suggesting a significant rise from the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amazon this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here, as you see below.
Amazon has an Earnings ESP of +6.19%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AMZN has a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.
APi Group APG has an Earnings ESP of +2.06% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
The company is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 results on May 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APG's earnings is pegged at 32 cents per share, indicating growth of 28% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.
Booking Holdings BKNG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.75% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The company is set to announce first-quarter 2024 results on May 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BKNG's earnings is pinned at $14.02 per share, indicating a jump of 20.9% from the year-ago actual.
Cardinal Health CAH has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The company is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on May 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAH's earnings is pegged at $1.95 per share, indicating growth of 12.1% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

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