Alphabet's Blockbuster Results Highlight Its Transition From AI Laggard To Going 'On The Offensive': 11 Analysts Revise Forecasts After Q1 Results

Zinger Key Points
  • Alphabet’s Q1 ad revenues show “surprising strength,” with Search and YouTube revenue growth of 14% and 21%, respectively, one analyst says.
  • The company’s GenAI advancements are beginning to drive higher user engagement and advertiser returns, another analyst notes.

Alphabet Inc GOOG GOOGL shares were climbing on Friday after the company reported its first-quarter results amid a lot of hype around the AI revolution.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the release.

Goldman Sachs On Alphabet

Analyst Eric Sheridan reiterated a Buy rating while raising the price target from $185 to $195.

Alphabet's first-quarter results reflected higher-than-expected revenues from Search and YouTube, "as Google's broader ad ecosystem benefited from a strong end demand environment and continued to demonstrate product innovation with Performance Max and YT Shorts," Sheridan wrote in a note.

"AI innovation continues to build scale in the advertising business (conversions, Performance Max and search generative experience)," he added.

"Alphabet struck a multi-sided theme of investing for the long-term (highlighted by Q1 capex levels that would be sustained throughout 2024), upside in both Services and Cloud operating income margins as prior period restructuring and cost initiatives demonstrated operating leverage and continued to scale its capital return policy," the analyst stated.

Mizuho Securities On Alphabet

Analyst James Lee maintained a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $170 to $190.

Alphabet's first-quarter results were "strong" with "better revenue growth and opex controls, combined with assertive commentary in contrast to prior quarters," Lee said.

The company's advertising revenues showed "surprising strength," with Search revenue growth at a higher-than-expected 14%, driven by "strength in retail and promotional demands" and YouTube revenue growth accelerating to 21%, as a result of "increased adoption for new format Demand Gen and higher engagement in Shorts," the analyst added.

Morgan Stanley On Alphabet

Analyst Brian Nowak reaffirmed an Overweight rating while raising the price target from $165 to $195.

Search and YouTube revenues came in higher than expectations by 3% and 6%, respectively, "building confidence in faster ’24 and ’25 growth," Nowak said. Alphabet's efforts to "structurally re-engineer the cost structure" was reflected in its first-quarter EBIT of $25.5 billion, he added.

Margins expanded by 670 basis points on a year-on-year basis and GenAI advancements "are beginning to drive improved user engagement and advertiser return," the analysts stated. Although higher capital expenditures dampens upside to free cash flows, "faster EPS growth and an improving AI position support a higher multiple, in our view," he further stated.

JPMorgan On Alphabet

Analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated an Overweight rating while lifting the price target from $165 to $200.

"Alphabet reported strong 1Q24 results across the board," Anmuth said in a note. "In terms of AI, after what seemed like a year-plus of coming from behind, we believe GOOGL is beginning to go on the offensive," he added.

Management expressed confidence in the company's shift to Generative AI in Search expanding its Search market opportunity, "just as GOOGL saw with the shift to mobile & voice," the analyst added.

Oppenheimer On Alphabet

Analyst Jason Helfstein maintained a Outperform rating while raising the price target from $185 to $205.

Alphabet's ad business is "accelerating and driving operating leverage, despite significant investments in AI," Helfstein said. Management guided to margin expansion in 2024, despite capex of $48 billion, "suggesting confidence in ad business," he added.

The company also guided to YouTube and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) revenues of over $100 billion by the end of 2024, the analyst stated.

"Management is increasingly confident in Gemini/AI improvements, which is driving better outcomes for advertisers," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Roth MKM On Alphabet

Analyst Rohit Kulkarni reiterated a Buy rating while raising the price target to $164 to $202.

"GOOGL reported a clean beat 1Q driven by accelerating growth in all key segments, Search, Cloud, and YouTube," Kulkarni said. Core Google Services operating margins hit almost 40%, "a multi-year high as 15-month-long cost efficiencies have started to bear fruit," he added.

For the first time in its history, Alphabet declared a quarterly dividend of 20 cents per share in addition to a new share buyback authorization of $70 billion, the analyst further stated.

Stifel On Alphabet

Analyst Mark Kelley maintained a Buy rating while lifting the price target from $174 to $196.

"Alphabet checked a lot of boxes in 1Q, with a solid beat across the main segments investors are focused on," Kelley wrote in a note. He added that the "vagueness" the company exhibited in the previous quarter resulted from continued investments in its AI initiatives.

YouTube delivered strong ad revenues and GCP growth accelerated sequentially to 28% year-on-year, the analyst stated. "Operating margins improved as management focuses on streamlining the organization to slow the pace of expense growth going forward," he added.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Alphabet

Analyst Justin Patterson reaffirmed an Overweight rating while raising the price target from $175 to $200.

Alphabet reported solid first-quarter results, with gross revenue of $80.54 billion, beating Street estimates of $78.8 billion, and earnings of $1.89 per share, surpassing consensus of $1.51 per share, Patterson said.

The company posted "accelerating Search growth, material EPS upside, and the long-awaited dividend," he added.

"More broadly, non-Search businesses are also scaling and management appears more committed to profitability," the analyst wrote. He further stated that the company is likely to generate a two-year earnings CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of more than 20% through 2025.

BofA Securities On Alphabet

Analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating while raising the price target from $173 to $200.

Alphabet delivered "rare triple-lindy returns," with upside in Search, YouTube and Cloud, which were "all powered by AI," Post said.

Revenues from Search grew 14%, from YouTube surged 21%, and from Cloud accelerated to 28%, the analyst stated. "Capex spend up 91% y/y to $12bn in 1Q was the negative takeaway, but Google could be emerging as an AI beneficiary, a big change in narrative," he further wrote.

Wedbush On Alphabet

Analyst Scott Devitt maintained an Outperform rating while lifting the price target from $175 to $205.

"We think 1Q results further validate Google's position as a leading AI beneficiary as management commentary directly addressed the structural risks of generative AI on the Search business," Devitt said.

"Importantly, Google has already reduced the costs associated with SGE responses by 80% in the past year, and we expect the company will continue to optimize the economics of SGE prior to a broader launch," he added.

Needham Markets On Alphabet

Analyst Laura Martin reaffirmed a Buy rating while raising the price target from $160 to $210.

Alphabet reported strong first-quarter results, with year-on-year growth in revenue of 15%, in operating income of 46%, and in earnings of 61%, Martin said.

"GOOGL repeatedly connected GenAI costs to revs and profitable growth," the analyst wrote. The company also announced a share buyback authorization of $70 billion and its first dividend ever, of 20 cents per share, she added.

GOOGL Price Action: Shares of Alphabet had risen by 10.36% to $172.16 at the time of publication on Friday.

Photo: IgorGolovniov on Shutterstock

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