If You Invested $1000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now

How much a stock's price changes over time is a significant driver for most investors. Not only can price performance impact your portfolio, but it can help you compare investment results across sectors and industries as well.

Another factor that can influence investors is FOMO, or the fear of missing out, especially with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to CMG for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Chipotle Mexican Grill's main business drivers.

A Delaware corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, together with its subsidiaries, operates quick-casual and fresh Mexican food restaurant chains. The company was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells, who started with a single restaurant in Denver, CO. The company offers a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. Chipotle restaurants feature free-range, hormone-free pork, natural chicken and other meat products cooked using traditional methods and served in a unique atmosphere.
The company is committed to using high-quality real ingredients, classic cooking techniques and distinctive interior design to serve customers. As of Dec 31, 2023, the company owned and operated more than 3,400 restaurants across the United States, Canada, the U.K., France and Germany.

The company's growth is significantly driven by its digital platform. It has enhanced its capabilities by digitizing restaurant kitchens, expanding partnerships with third-party delivery services, and increasing the number of Chipotlanes (drive-through format for customer pick-up of digital orders). Digital sales, encompassing revenue generated through the Chipotle website, Chipotle app, or third-party delivery aggregators, which also includes revenue deferrals linked to Chipotle Rewards, constituted 37.4% of food and beverage revenue in 2023, compared to 39.4% in 2022 and 45.0% in 2021. The company has facilitated convenient digital ordering through enhancements to the Chipotle app and website, including unlimited customization, contactless delivery, and group ordering.
The company utilizes multiple marketing channels, including national television, digital marketing, social media, fundraising, events and sponsorships to reach consumers. Third-party service providers mostly provide delivery services.
In 2018, Chipotle launched a loyalty program called Chipotle Rewards, which provides customers with the opportunity to earn bonus points or free food. Earned rewards generally expire one to six months after they are issued and points typically expire if an account is inactive for six months.

Bottom Line

Putting together a successful investment portfolio takes a combination of research, patience, and a little bit of risk. For Chipotle Mexican Grill, if you bought shares a decade ago, you're likely feeling really good about your investment today.

According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in April 2014 would be worth $6,344.63, or a gain of 534.46%, as of April 29, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

In comparison, the S&P 500 gained 173.69% and the price of gold went up 73.49% over the same time frame.

Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for CMG.

Shares of Chipotle have outperformed the industry in the past year. The company reported first-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis. During the quarter, the company reported benefits stemming from enhanced throughput and effective marketing initiatives like Braised Beef Barbacoa and Chicken Al Pastor, leading to strong sales and transaction growth. Also, consistent strength in digital sales, rise in menu prices and new restaurant openings bode well. Going forward, it continues to focus on the stage gate process and leveraging digital programs to expand access and convenience. However, elevated wage and commodity inflation pose concerns. For 2024, the company expects the cost of sales to be in the low to mid-single-digit range.

The stock is up 9.64% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 13 higher, for fiscal 2024. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.

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