Netflix To Stream 2 NFL Christmas Day Games: Analyst Sees Strong Growth Potential

Netflix Inc NFLX has secured exclusive rights to stream two NFL games on Christmas Day, marking its first venture into broadcasting live football.

The deal, costing less than $150 million per game, is part of Netflix’s broader strategy to incorporate live programming, enhancing its appeal to advertisers and broadening viewer options. 

This initiative aligns with the company’s recent experiments in live events, including sports, which, due to their live nature, attract significant viewer and advertiser interest, Bloomberg reports. 

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The NFL, a long-standing beacon for high viewership in live broadcasts, plans to unveil its 2024-25 schedule soon. Netflix will discuss its sports broadcasting strategy further at an upcoming event in New York. This move into live sports also supports Netflix’s advertising growth, mainly through its ad-supported subscription plan.

Analyst’s Take: KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson reiterated an Overweight rating on Netflix with a price target of $705.

According to Patterson, Netflix’s ad upfront presentation will highlight its platform reach of ~40 million ad-supported MAUs, a more robust content slate, and a broader set of partnerships. He expects this week’s upfronts will build on the growth in ad-supported MAUs, a more comprehensive range of ad innovation, visibility into viewership data, and highlight the strength of Netflix’s content slate across scripted series and live events.

The Roast of Tom Brady was a major success, and he expected the upcoming Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight to garner meaningful viewership. The analyst is also notes that landing the two Christmas NFL games, suggests sports leagues continue to find streamers’ reach, data insights, and balance sheets attractive. 

As Netflix deepens its ad capabilities, Patterson noted this could help support >10% annual revenue growth in 2025 and beyond. 

He noted a Netflix partnership is a low-probability event this week but one that remains on the horizon due to Netflix’s increased focus on advertising. He maintained that The Trade Desk Inc TTD and its retail media capabilities are well suited to helping the streaming ecosystem monetize and yield returns on content spend.

Price Action: NFLX shares were down 0.4% at $611.14 at the last check Wednesday.

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