Housing Affordability Challenges Persist, Yet Buyer's Market Flourishes In Texas And Florida

Amid rising mortgage rates and general unaffordability nationwide, cities in Florida and Texas are emerging as havens for homebuyers.

While the broader U.S. housing market continues to favor sellers with high prices and tight inventory, specific metro areas in the South are bucking the trend, according to a Zillow market heat index.

In Florida, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami are classified as buyer's markets, indicating a shift toward conditions favoring buyers over sellers. Jacksonville and Tampa, with a market heat index of 44, and Miami, at 39, are seeing adjustments due to increased inventory levels and slower sales velocities.

Jacksonville and Tampa have benefited from construction efforts that have replenished housing stocks to levels closer to demand, Zillow noted, easing the pressure on buyers.

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Miami, with the lowest index score among Zillow's highlighted cities, shows the most substantial buyer's market dynamics, characterized by higher inventory levels and a significant rate of price reductions. The shift has been particularly pronounced given Miami's high-value real estate market, where price adjustments can create substantial opportunities for buyers.

Texas cities like Houston, Austin, and San Antonio each have a market heat index in the low 50s, classifying them as neutral markets.

With a market heat index of 55, Houston has a balanced dynamic where neither buyers nor sellers have an advantage. This is due to a consistent supply of new housing developments and a local economy that supports both sides of the market equation.

Austin and San Antonio, both with an index of 52, have seen their inventory levels rise above pre-pandemic figures. The increase in housing supply has significantly shifted the markets to more neutral conditions, Zillow said, alleviating some of the competition among buyers seen in previous years.

National Context

Nationally, though, the housing market remains predominantly in the seller’s territory. Ongoing challenges, including high mortgage rates and elevated home values, constrain buyer activity. 

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Hotter markets on the West Coast and the Northeast have index scores well into the strong seller’s market territory.

San Francisco and San Jose, with market heat indexes of 111 and 112, respectively, are characterized by fierce buyer competition and rapid sales cycles, with homes often selling in less than three weeks.

Buffalo, New York, touted by Zillow as the hottest market of 2024, boasts a market heat index of 118. Zillow said that inventory constraints and high demand continue to drive quick sales and fewer price cuts, contrary to the national trend toward cooling.

In places like Hartford, Providence, and other Northeastern cities, which also rank high on the seller's market index, the ongoing inventory shortages ensure sellers retain the upper hand.

Experts suggest that the broader housing market may see a shift if mortgage rates stabilize or decline, potentially easing the current seller’s advantage in hotter markets.

However, macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policies and broader inflation trends, are likely to drive those changes.

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