Alibaba Rival PDD Has Major Upside with New Market Openings and Rising Adoption: Analysts

PDD Holdings Inc PDD shares are trading higher after multiple analysts raised their price targets on the stock following the company's first-quarter results.

On Thursday, PDD reported fiscal first-quarter 2024 revenue growth of 131% year-on-year to $12.02 billion (86.81 billion Chinese yuan), beating the analyst consensus of $10.65 billion.

The Chinese online retailer's adjusted earnings per ADS of $2.83 (CNY20.72) increased from CNY6.92 Y/Y, beating the analyst consensus of $1.42. 

Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang maintained PDD Holdings with a Buy and raised the price target from $220 to $230.

Jiang said PDD reported another blowout quarter, with revenue more than doubled and profit almost tripled year over year, substantially beating consensus expectations. 

The robust growth was bolstered by sustained high growth in the domestic marketplace and robust expansion of Temu internationally. 

More importantly, despite the strong GMV growth, Temu's loss came down substantially, and its loss ratio narrowed notably to single digits. The analyst said this validates the business model's viability and signifies the substantial operating leverage the business promises. 

Jiang continues to view PDD as a standout growth stock in China's ADR. 

The analyst expects Temu to continue to deliver robust growth in fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025, driven by continued new market openings, increasing penetration of opened markets, especially in Europe and the newly opened Asian markets, and rising adoption of the hybrid model leveraging existing local inventories. 

Jiang raised his fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 revenue estimates to CNY438 billion (from CNY380 billion prior) and CNY575 billion (from CNY500 billion prior). 

The analyst also raised his fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 adjusted EPADS estimates to $10.48 and $13.26, respectively.

Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung reiterated a Neutral rating on PDD Holdings with a price target of $145.

PDD reported a strong print with a first-quarter top line at 3% above Keung's expectations and adjusted group operating profit beat at CNY28.6 billion, +237% Y/Y, which came above its largest peer, Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA EBITA of CNY24 billion over the same period. 

However, the share price reaction was muted, likely due to already elevated buy-side expectations and investor questions on the sustainability of its first-quarter profitability, driven by better domestic Pinduoduo profitability, investor concerns on Pinduoduo's significant online marketing services take rate uplift, and PDD management comments on the results call that they expect quarterly P&L fluctuations as likely.

Price Action: PDD shares traded higher by 5.51% at $155.17 at the last check Thursday.

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