Prominent cryptocurrency trader smileycapital is raising the bar for Ether ETH/USD price predictions following the long-awaited approval of a spot Ethereum ETF.
What Happened: While the market awaits a definitive breakout, smileycapital outlines a bullish short-term outlook with a target of $9,000, highlighting several key factors.
The trader draws comparisons with Bitcoin's BTC/USD performance following its ETF approval.
From October to March, Bitcoin surged from $30,000 to $74,000, roughly a 150% increase.
Applying a similar trajectory to Ethereum, he notes, could imply a target of around $7,500 from the $3,000 level observed when the first news broke.
Adjusting for market conditions and speculative behaviors, he suggests a potential peak of $9,500 for ETH.
Differences In Market Conditions
However, smileycapital points out that Ethereum’s current market conditions differ significantly from those of Bitcoin during its ETF approval period.
Bitcoin benefitted from a longer speculative phase, lasting three months before the actual approval, which allowed for substantial price growth.
In contrast, Ethereum’s speculative period was much shorter, leading to a 30% rally and a subsequent cooling-off phase.
Also Read: SEC Approval Of Ethereum ETFs Is Evidence Of A ‘Profound Shift’ In Crypto Adoption: Report
“ETH does not have the aspect of pure speculation,” smileycapital notes, emphasizing the importance of speculation in driving price movements.
He also mentions the seasonal slowdown in market participation during summer, which might affect Ethereum’s short-term price dynamics.
Long-Term Outlook
Post-approval, Bitcoin saw aggressive inflows for approximately 2.5 months, driven by rising global liquidity and retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), which propelled it to new all-time highs.
Smileycapital suggests a similar pattern could occur for Ethereum, especially if institutional funds and participants chase ETH following Bitcoin’s ETF success.
However, he cautions about tempering expectations given the current market phase and potential seasonal impacts.
Despite the cautious short-term outlook, smileycapital remains optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects, targeting $12,000 to $16,000 with a ratio of 0.12 against Bitcoin.
He believes the approval of Ethereum ETFs cements the asset’s role as an institutional vehicle, paving the way for significant industry ramifications and a potential bull run in Q4 2024 and the first half of 2025.
Looking Forward
Ethereum's path to $9,000 in the short term is influenced by a mix of speculative behaviors, market conditions and institutional inflows.
As the market navigates these dynamics, investors and industry leaders can gain further insights at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
Read Next: With Ethereum ETFs Approved, Why Is ETH Not Going Up?
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