Former President Donald Trump remains the betting favorite to win the 2024 election, even after being found guilty on 34 federal charges.
Here are the latest betting odds and how the verdict saw the market quickly overreact.
What Happened: On Thursday, Trump was found guilty on 34 charges of falsifying business records. The former president awaits sentencing on July 11 and could face prison time.
If Trump is sent to prison he will still be able to run for president in the 2024 election.
Trump remains the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at Bet365, as reported by Covers.
"Despite being found guilty of 34 charges in his New York hush money trial, Trump remains the favorite to be the next president at -110," Covers' Betting Analyst Rohit Ponnaiya told Benzinga.
Ponnaiya told Benzinga that the verdict saw a quick swing in the betting odds.
"Some of the best betting value in political odds comes from watching how the market overreacts to breaking news, and as the verdict came in yesterday we saw the perfect example of that."
After Trump's guilty verdict, Trump dropped from being a -125 favorite to second place at +120. President Joe Biden shifted from second place at +137 to the favorite at -110.
"However, those odds have since stabilized and Trump is back to being the favorite albeit at a slightly lower price at -110."
Ponnaiya said that Trump being found guilty in additional trials could play out the same overreaction scenario if the trials are held before the 2024 election.
Here's a look at the current betting odds for the 2024 presidential election at Bet365 with the betting odds from April in parentheses:
- Donald Trump: -110 (+110)
- Joe Biden: +130 (+110)
- Michelle Obama: +1,400 (+1,600)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: +2,500 (+1,600)
- Gavin Newsom: +4,000 (+2,800)
- Kamala Harris: +4,000 (+3,300)
Trump has topped the betting odds for several months in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Back in August 2023, Biden was the favorite to win re-election.
Going back to Biden's inauguration in January 2021, it was current Vice President Kamala Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350, based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
When Biden declared his candidacy for reelection, he emerged as the betting favorite, as many anticipated that a tight race between DeSantis and Trump for the Republican nomination would weaken one of them.
Why It's Important: U.S. resident can't actively bet with online sportsbooks on who the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc DKNG offer betting on politics for residents of Canada. Foreign sportsbooks in Europe and other markets may also offer betting on the 2024 election.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told Benzinga previously he hoped someday political betting on big races such as president will be allowed in the U.S.
Prediction markets have also seen a surge in election-themed markets, including those available at Polymarket.
Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market," offers betting on several political outcomes, including the overall 2024 presidential election.
On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon network MATIC/USD, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH. In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.
Over $144 million has been wagered on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket. Here are the current projected odds on Polymarket, with odds from May 21 in parentheses.
- Donald Trump: 55% (55%)
- Joe Biden: 39% (40%)
- Michelle Obama: 3% (3%)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 2% (2%)
- Kamala Harris: 1% (1%)
Biden previously led Trump 44% to 43% on Polymarket, but the former president's odds have increased significantly in recent months.
A separate prediction market on Polymarket saw 76% of bettors say that Trump would be found guilty in the hush money trial.
The guilty verdict against Trump will be appealed by the former president. Currently, this verdict is having minimal impact on the betting odds for the 2024 election.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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