A recent Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian reveals that 49% of respondents believe the U.S. stock market index is down for the year. This perception persists despite a significant 12% rise in the S&P 500 this year, which reached a record high on May 21.
The same poll reveals that 67% of Republicans, 53% of Independents, and 49% of Democrats wrongly believe the U.S. is in a recession. Similarly, 55% of poll respondents think the economy is contracting.
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These results reveal that it isn’t a partisan issue — people across the board don’t feel the effects of the rising stock market. That discrepancy should raise some eyebrows in Washington, especially since many Americans connect the state of the economy to the Biden administration. Notably, 58% of those surveyed blame mismanagement by the current administration for worsening economic conditions.
Despite positive economic indicators, such as GDP growth and a low unemployment rate under 4% for the 27th straight month — a nearly 50-year low, public perception remains pessimistic. These metrics should inspire confidence in the economy’s resilience and potential for additional growth, yet they clearly don’t.
The rising cost of living is a significant factor behind this pessimism. Despite a decline in inflation, prices remain higher than they were a few years ago, causing people to experience the strain of higher costs. This financial pressure likely shapes people’s views of the economy, making them more pessimistic.
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Misinformation also influences public perception. The economy is complex, and mixed messages from different sources can confuse people. They hear different things from different sources, making it hard to know what’s happening. For some, this confusion can change the economy and what they think is happening.
Lastly, we shouldn’t overlook the emotional impact of past economic problems. After experiencing high inflation and interest rates, people are cautious and worried about the future. This nervousness is reflected in a University of Michigan survey, which showed that consumer confidence fell to its lowest point in six months in May.
As Election Day nears, this ongoing economic pessimism will likely affect voter attitudes, and persuading voters to adopt a more positive outlook could be difficult for Biden.
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