Oracle Rides Strong On The AI Wave, Despite Q4 Revenue Miss: 8 Analysts' Insights

Zinger Key Points
  • Although Oracle delivers a FQ4 revenue miss, its backlog strength is impressive, one analyst says.
  • The company signs $12B in AI contracts, more than 2X the prior YTD, another analyst notes.

Oracle Corp ORCL shares were climbing on Wednesday after the company reported its quarterly results.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Piper Sandler On Oracle

Analyst Brent Bracelin maintained an Overweight rating, while raising the price target from $140 to $150.

Oracle's reported quarterly revenue miss of $242 million "takes a back seat to leading indicators like RPO metrics," given its backlog strength, especially the new contract signings of $32 billion in just six months, Bracelin said in a note.  

RPO growth accelerated from the previous quarter's 29% to 44% year-on-year to $98 billion, "driven by robust new AI contract signings," the analyst stated, while adding that the company's cRPO growth remained at 15% for the second consecutive quarter. "Non-GAAP operating margin improved q/q to 46.7% from 43.6%," he further wrote.

Stifel On Oracle

Analyst Brad Reback reiterated a Hold rating while lifting the price target from $120 to $135.

Oracle's results missed Street estimates "across the board," Reback said. He added, however, that the stock rose in extended trading on RPO growth accelerated to 44% and management’s guidance of double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2025.

With accelerating infrastructure demand, Oracle signed AI contracts of $12 billion, which is more than twice the prior $5 billion year to date, highlighted by OpenAI and xAI deals, and a partnership with Google-parent Alphabet Inc GOOGGOOGL.

Morgan Stanely On Oracle

Analyst Keith Weiss reaffirmed an Equal-Weight rating, while raising the price target from $115 to $125.

Oracle reported "another big quarter for growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)," adding additional contract value of $18 billion, which brings the total exiting the fourth quarter to $98 billion, Weiss said.

"The positive of signing 30 OCI customers driving $12.5B in AI bookings outweighed the negatives of revs and EPS missing in Q4, with notable decelerations in SaaS apps," the analyst wrote. "In an environment rewarding hardware vendors participating in the AI build-out, this likely supports positive momentum in ORCL," he added.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Oracle

Analyst Jackson Ader maintained an Overweight rating, while lifting the price target from $150 to $165.

Oracle reported revenue of $14.287 billion and non-GAAP earning of $1.63 per share, both below Street expectations, Ader said.

While Oracle's OCI offered faster speeds and lower cost to attract AI startups, it "lacked a headliner," the analyst wrote, while adding that the contract with OpenAI "validates a lot of the talking points management has been harping on for months."

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

JPMorgan On Oracle

Analyst Mark Murphy maintained a Neutral rating while raising the price target from $105 to $110.

Three of Oracle's fourth major revenue segments missed expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter, Murphy said. He added that the company "once again" guided to total revenue below Street expectations for the current quarter.

Investors seem to be focusing on "OCI deal commentary, RPO / bookings figures, and forward guidance that calls for accelerating revenue growth into double-digits in FY25," the analyst wrote. The guidance is partly enabled by the shortfalls in the previous fiscal year, "but places the business closer to the trajectory needed to reach its FY26 targets," he added.

Goldman Sachs On Oracle

Analyst Kash Rangan reiterated a Neutral rating while lifting the price target from $130 to $137.

Management guided to IaaS (infrastructure-as-a-service) growth of over 50% for fiscal 2025, "as ORCL invests to bring additional capacity online," Rangan said.  

This commentary potentially offset the company's fiscal fourth-quarter performance "running counter" to the sequential acceleration seen in the year-on-year growth rates for Microsoft Corp.'s MSFT Azure (+100bps), Amazon.com Inc's AMZN AWS (+400bps), and Google's GCP (+300bps), he added.

DA Davidson On Oracle

Analyst Gil Luria reaffirmed a Neutral rating and price target of $105.

Oracle reported $14.3 billion in total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, up 4% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, representing a deceleration from the previous quarter and coming in below expectations, Luria said.

"Operating margin expansion remained a positive this quarter," he added. "Next quarter, management is guiding towards 6% total revenue growth at the midpoint, below expectations, while expecting total cloud revenue to grow 21%," the analyst further wrote.

JMP Securities On Oracle

Analyst Patrick Walravens maintained a Market Perform rating on the stock.

Oracle reported "generally worse-than-expected" quarterly results, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.63 per share coming in below consensus of $1.65 per share, Walravens said. "Most impressively, RPO of $98B (Citizens JMPe $78B), up 44% y/y versus 29% last quarter," he added.

"The good news for Oracle is that Larry Ellison's prescient investment in Gen2 Infrastructure Services is paying off handsomely with more than 30 AI sales contracts in F4Q totaling a remarkable $12.5B in RPO and with Gen2 annualized revenue of $7.4B, up 44% y/y, and representing 13% of total revenue," the analyst wrote.

ORCL Price Action: Shares of Oracle had risen by 12.31% to $139.13 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorEarnings MissesPrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsMoversTechTrading IdeasBrad RebackBrent BracelinDA DavidsonExpert IdeasGil LuriaGoldman SachsJackson AderJMP SecuritiesJPMorganKash RanganKeith WeissKeyBanc Capital MarkersMark MurphyMorgan StanelyPatrick WalravensPiper SandlerStifelStories That Matter
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