With President Joe Biden having narrowly secured Michigan by just 2.78% in the 2020 elections, the housing crisis in the state means that the sitting president may not win the favor of those same voters in the upcoming election if the crisis isn’t addressed.
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As Michigan grapples with a housing shortage that leaves half its renters spending more than 30% of their income on housing, many feel overlooked by political leaders. With 82% of renters believing their situation would improve if housing issues were addressed, the upcoming months of campaigning will be a test for Biden's reelection bid. Michigan voters — key swing state constituents — may weigh their electoral choices heavily on the administration's response to the crisis.
In fact, according to a Hit Strategies poll cited by Crain’s Detroit Business, 77% of renters and 63% of homeowners in swing states, including Michigan, indicated they are more inclined to vote for candidates who champion affordable housing initiatives, making housing a decisive issue for the 2024 elections.
But so far, the majority of voters aren't hearing politicians talk about it.
"For all voters, but younger voters and renters especially, there is a massive gap between how little they hear politicians talk about issues of housing affordability and rent and how big an impact that issue has on their personal situation," the Hit Strategies poll said.
Swing state voters rank hearing politicians talk about the "cost of rent and housing" near the very bottom of a list that includes other key issues like abortion and immigration. Only 48% report they hear housing discussed "a lot" or "some," while a majority of 52% say it is mentioned "not much" or "not at all."
According to a Zillow analysis, despite the COVID-era boom in construction, the U.S. is currently short roughly 4.5 million homes, up from a shortage of 4.3 million homes in 2021.
That escalating housing shortage is fundamentally driving the crisis in housing affordability, the analysis said.
"We’ve never been in a housing crisis like this in our lifetimes," Michigan State Housing Development Authority CEO Amy Hovey said during a panel discussion last month. "But yet we’re not seeing the response from the federal government."
Importantly for Michigan voters, the housing shortage isn't a partisan issue. Democratic and Republican voters in the swing state are signaling a strong preference for "aggressive" government intervention to address the crisis.
The Hit Strategies poll found that around 60% of Republicans, alongside a majority of Democrats, would more likely support candidates advocating for permanently affordable housing and rent stabilization.
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That 60% of Republican support is significant as 64% of battleground Republicans typically prefer the government to reduce its involvement, according to the poll.
Currently, in swing states, renters — who make up 26% of the electorate — hold mixed feelings about President Biden, with 41% viewing him favorably against 45% unfavorably.
Homeowners, however, are more critical of Biden, with only 38% favoring him compared to 55% who do not.
Conversely, former President Donald Trump faces challenges with renters, as 37% view him favorably and 54% view him unfavorably. Among homeowners, Trump’s ratings are more balanced, with 45% favorable versus 49% unfavorable.
Notably, the poll found that just 58% of renters are committed to voting in the upcoming election, a sharp decline from the 85% turnout in 2020.
That reduced enthusiasm contrasts with the 78% of homeowners who are certain to vote, the poll found, marking a disparity that could impact the election's outcome, particularly given the more favorable view renters have of Biden compared to Trump.
The two candidates will face off in their first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle on June 27.
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