Donald Trump Eyes Nevada Victory As California Refugees Drive Up Housing Costs In The Swing State

Disgruntled voters in Nevada, facing a severe housing crisis exacerbated by an influx of Californians, may shift their allegiance in the upcoming election, potentially ending a two-decade Democratic hold on the state.

With housing costs in some areas of Nevada surging by 50% over the last three years and rental prices climbing nearly 70%, the affordability crisis sharpens its impact on the state’s electoral dynamics. Unlike other swing states grappling with housing issues, Nevada's situation is unique: residents are being priced out of homeownership by their wealthier counterparts in California.

Over 158,000 Californians have moved to Nevada in the last four years, fleeing their own housing crisis that has seen the median-priced home in the state increase by over 38%. The median household income in California, which exceeds $110,000, contrasts with the typical $89,325 in Nevada. 

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That disparity means Californians, with greater purchasing power, have driven up local housing prices to levels many Nevadans find unaffordable, thus preventing them from purchasing homes they could otherwise afford. According to Redfin, Nevada's housing prices rose by 7.1% last year alone.

The issue, compounded by the effects typical of a housing crisis, has been increasingly frustrating for many middle-class voters in the state. Based on candidates’ responses to the crisis, they may reconsider their electoral choices.

With swing state polls suggesting a potential edge for Trump, according to the New York Post, the upcoming election could pivot on responses to the housing crunch.

A Hit Strategies poll on swing state voters issued in late April found just that. 

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About 77% of renters and 63% of homeowners in swing states, including Nevada, indicated they are more inclined to vote for a candidate who champions affordable housing initiatives.

However, the majority of voters aren't hearing politicians talk about it, potentially giving an edge to the candidate who addresses the crisis in swing states.

"For all voters, but especially younger voters and renters, there is a massive gap between how little they hear politicians talk about issues of housing affordability and rent and how big an impact that issue has on their personal situation," the Hit Strategies poll said.

Swing state voters rank hearing politicians talk about the “cost of rent and housing” near the bottom of a list that includes other key issues like abortion and immigration. Only 48% report they hear housing discussed “a lot” or “some,” while a majority of 52% say it is mentioned “not much” or “not at all.”

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During a visit to Nevada in April, President Biden outlined his administration’s efforts to tackle the housing crisis, saying there is a real need to boost housing supply. According to Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nevada), the president’s engagement was a “relief” as it directly addressed the housing challenges.

In his speech, Biden proposed a series of interventions, including the creation and expansion of tax credits to encourage the development and renovation of affordable housing. However, the proposals are unlikely to pass in a Republican-run House of Representatives.

While Trump hasn't directly addressed the housing crisis in the same way Biden has, the Wall Street Journal reported in April that members of the Trump campaign were developing a plan to restructure the Federal Reserve under Trump (should he win in November) and give him authority over interest rate decisions.

If that is the case, Trump could theoretically influence Fed policy decisions to lower mortgage rates and artificially stimulate the economy.  

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