Split Fortunes In The Tech Sector Puts Spotlight On Direxion's Daily MSFT Bull 2X (MSFU) And 1X Bear (MSFD) ETFs

Microsoft Corp MSFT managed to stave off the Monday morning blues, poking its head above parity against Friday's close. On the other hand, semiconductor juggernaut NVIDIA Corp NVDA wasn't so lucky, slipping around 5% versus its previous end-of-session price. Due to the split fortunes in the tech space, MSFT stock represents the most valuable public equity with a market capitalization of $3.34 trillion.

Both Microsoft and Nvidia have pinned their future on the blistering rise of artificial intelligence. For the former, the company partnered with OpenAI, the creator of popular chatbot ChatGPT. In addition, the tech giant has recently diversified into other global partnerships and startup investments.

Of course, Nvidia has been riding high on its advanced graphics processors that undergird the most rigorous AI protocols. Enterprise-level clients and government agencies continue to favor Nvidia's hardware.

However, Monday's rapid erosion of NVDA stock means that it's now trading below the $3 trillion market cap level. That puts it behind Apple Inc AAPL, which presently carries a market cap of around $3.22 trillion.

This latest rumbling in the tech arena puts a small wrinkle in the race to $4 trillion. Though some analysts expected Nvidia to be in the lead, MSFT stock could make the competition very interesting.

The ETFs: For investors interested in short-term speculation – either to the upside or down – on MSFT stock, they have two popular options in the form of exchange-traded funds: Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares (MSFU) and Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares ETF (MSFD).

First, MSFU represents a double-leveraged fund that tracks the movement of MSFT stock and attempts to amplify the returns by double the magnitude. For example, if Microsoft shares gain 2%, the MSFU in theory should jump 4%. Conversely, the opposite may hold true, meaning that this ETF should only be reserved for high-conviction trades.

Second, the MSFD allows retail investors to bet against MSFT stock without getting into the complexities of options trading or using margin to directly bet against the tech juggernaut. Here, one purchases units of the ETF like any other security. The main difference is that if MSFT falls, in theory, MSFD should rise by the same magnitude.

Investors should note that both MSFU and MSFD represent short-term trades only. Due to the compounding effect of daily returns, leveraged and inverse ETFs can become disassociated from their expected returns if held across multiple sessions.

The MSFU Chart: Since the start of the year, MSFU has gained about 30% of market value. This compares to MSFT stock, which moved up around 21%. Momentum has been strong since early June. However, some evidence of a slowdown is materializing.

• At the moment, there's no need for the bulls to panic. MSFU is up noticeably above its 20-day exponential moving average. Also, it's flying well above its 50-day moving average, which is a key barometer of near-term market health.
• On June 17, the intraday high clocked in at $51.09. Subsequent sessions have seen MSFU struggle against this level, which is acting as resistance. Ideally, the bulls will be looking for sentiment to shoot past this point.

The MSFD Chart: As to be expected, the inverse MSFD fund has not performed well this year, losing about 17% of market value. About the only positive here is that in theory, MSFD should lose more given that MSFT stock swung up 21%. Still, bearish traders will be looking for signs of a possible sentiment reversal.

• At the present price point, MSFD is sitting conspicuously below its 20-day EMA. As well, it slipped significantly below its 50 DMA. The immediate target for speculators is for MSFD to return to the support line represented by the $14 level.
• Interestingly, on Jun. 17, MSFD reached an intraday low of $13.10. Subsequent sessions (prior to today's market action) have failed to print a lower low. That may be a sign that sentiment against the inverse fund is losing steam, possibly implying the framework for a reversal.

Featured photo by Mix from Pixabay.