Fed's 2024 Stress Test Results Worse Than Expected, Says Goldman Analyst: 'The Market Will View The Results As Disappointing'

The largest American banks were less than thrilled with the outcomes of the Federal Reserve’s 2024 Stress Tests, designed to measure the resilience of financial institutions’ capital in the event of a deep recession.

Although the 2024 Stress Tests confirmed that all 31 banks analyzed would meet the minimum capital requirements even during a severe crisis, the potential losses these banks would face are projected to be higher than the previous year.

Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden noted that the Stress Test results “were broadly worse than expected for the banks.”

Ramsden explained that the year-over-year change in results was largely driven by banks generating much lower pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) during the test period. For the largest banks, PPNR fell by 9% year-over-year.

Additionally, there were higher credit losses and provisions, particularly in commercial and industrial loans (C&I) and credit card sectors.

Goldman Sachs calculated that Wells Fargo & Co. WFC, Bank of America Corp. BAC, Morgan Stanley MS, and U.S. Bancorp USB experienced the most significant increases in estimated Stress Test Capital Buffers (SCBs).

Ramsden highlighted that the market would be most surprised by the magnitude of the SCB increase (90 basis points) at Wells Fargo, given the bank’s stable risk profile and positive earnings trends in 2023.

Similarly, the 60 basis point increase at Morgan Stanley was disappointing, especially considering their consistent SCB improvements in recent years due to a shift toward more predictable wealth management revenue.

Citigroup Inc. C saw improvements in line with expectations, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM had a 50 basis point SCB increase, which met market expectations.

On average, SCBs rose by 30 basis points year-over-year across all banks monitored.

“For the large banks, we believe the market will view the results as disappointing,” Ramsden said.

However, he also pointed out that the lack of transparency in how the test results are generated and the volatility of these results year-to-year make it difficult to determine if this year’s increase in capital requirements is permanent.

“We expect banks to report actual SCBs, which factor in four quarters of projected dividends, and potentially provide additional details on capital return plans after the U.S. market closes on either Friday, June 28, or Monday, July 1,” Ramsden added.

JPMorgan Identifies Inconsistencies in Fed Stress Tests

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM reviewed the Federal Reserve's 2024 stress test results, particularly scrutinizing the Fed's projections for Other Comprehensive Income (OCI).

OCI includes revenues, expenses, gains, and losses excluded from net income but included in comprehensive income, such as unrealized gains and losses on derivative instruments and foreign currency translation adjustments.

Based on JPMorgan’s assessment, the benefits in OCI seem overstated. If their analysis is correct, the resulting stress losses would be slightly higher than those disclosed by the Federal Reserve.

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