Upstart Holdings, Inc. Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPST has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.

Over the past month, shares of this company have returned -1.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, which Upstart falls in, has lost 4%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Upstart is expected to post a loss of $0.39 per share, indicating a change of -750% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The consensus earnings estimate of -$0.93 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -66.1%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $0.21 indicates a change of +123% from what Upstart is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Upstart is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth Forecast

While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

For Upstart, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $125.16 million indicates a year-over-year change of -7.8%. For the current and next fiscal years, $557.68 million and $643.51 million estimates indicate +8.6% and +15.4% changes, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

Upstart reported revenues of $127.79 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +24.2%. EPS of -$0.31 for the same period compares with -$0.47 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $124.82 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +2.39%. The EPS surprise was +18.42%.

Over the last four quarters, Upstart surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.

Valuation

No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Upstart is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers.

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