One To The Right, One To The Left: France's National Rally Set For Record Win As The UK's Labour Party Regains Support

Surprises are already marking 2024's global election cycle as half of the world population heads to the polls: France's parliamentary election has been overturned by the far right, while in the U.K., the Labor party is expected to win back the House of Commons.

Along with the upcoming American presidential election, at least 50 other nations are electing their leadership this year in what will be the largest electoral year of modern times.

While an overall shift to the right is widely expected across continents, recent preliminary results and polls are showing stark contrast in two of the world's largest economies.

In the U.K. and France, voters are expected to turn the balance of power upside down this week in parliamentary and general elections, though the shifts will be occurring in opposite directions.

The U.K. and France are, respectively, the sixth and seventh largest world economies by GDP, and the second and third largest in Europe after Germany.

Marine Le Pen And France's Sudden Right Turn: In France, a snap election dominated by the far-right National Rally party had European markets responding positively on Monday, as results show a rise to power by the far-right, but an unlikely supermajority in the National Assembly, which is the country's lower chamber.

The preliminary win from the party headed by long-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and 28-year-old party President Jordan Bardella, is putting pressure on President Emmanuel Macron to form a coalition that can stop the country from falling into a period of Eurosceptic and anti-immigration policies.

Immigration is widely considered one of the best strategies that developed countries can use to curb the catastrophic effects of low birth rates and poor demographic patterns.

Yet what's at stake is not only across social or political reform. France's finances hang in the balance after the far right has promised a spending spree that could put the country in an even worse fiscal deficit than it faces today, CNN reports.

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Last month, Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly after results of the European elections showed a large favor from voters towards Le Pen's National Rally.

The decision led to this week's snap election, which is being held in two rounds.

The first round ended Sunday with the National Rally earning 33.15% of the votes. The New Popular Front, a wide left-wing coalition, came second with 27.99%. Macron's Ensemble alliance sank to a third position with a meager 20.76%.

While Macron's grip on power is slipping, his presidential term will continue until 2027, after which he'll be unable to run for a third mandate.

The results mark the largest win yet for the far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally, though final results will be defined at the second round this Sunday.

The National Rally would need to win 289 of the chamber's 577 seats to have the automatic supermajority. If that were to happen, Macron would be forced to name Bardella as Prime Minister, essentially handing over control of the government to the National Rally.

The other possible scenario is that no party wins a supermajority, leading to a gridlocked government with Macron's coalition stuck between the National Rally and the leftist coalition of the New Popular Front.

This week will be defined by new strategies and alliances, as Macron's centrist coalition and the left look to avoid a supermajority by Le Pen's far-right coalition.

Will Labour Regain Power After 14 Years? In the U.K., the tide is expected to turn in the opposite direction this Thursday, as general elections promise big changes for a conservative government that faces record disapproval rates.

Polls are projecting an unprecedented swing towards the center-left Labour party, which has been described as the largest shift in this direction since World War II.

According to the Guardian, some projections have the Conservative Party losing as many as 100 seats from the 650 seats that make up the House of Commons, the country's lower chamber.

The Conservative Party, also known as the Tories, holds 365 seats, while Labour holds 202. The Tories have been in government for 14 years, putting forth five prime ministers, including a disastrous short-lived mandate by Liz Truss that risked dragging the country into its worst financial crisis in decades. Since 2022, current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has failed to recover public trust in his party.

In the 14 years, the country struggled to grow its economy, while seeing the deterioration of public health and other services. Post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery has been slower than that of other rich nations like the U.S.

The election is expected to reinstate Labour support in the Midlands and Northern England, two regions that have historically supported Labour and turned towards the Tories in the 2019 election.

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