Tesla Q2 Deliveries: Fund Manager Predicts 4% Shortfall, Ross Gerber Calls It A 'Low But Special Number'

Tesla, Inc. TSLA is scheduled to report its second-quarter deliveries ahead of the market open on Tuesday and as analysts finetune their expectations, a bullish fund manager chose to err on the side of caution.

What Happened: Tesla will likely report second-quarter deliveries of 420,000 units, which would mark a 10% year-over-year drop, said Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black. The company-compiled consensus is 437,800 units and the consensus estimate compiled by Bloomberg is 439,300, the fund manager said. Black’s estimate is 4.1% below the company-compiled consensus and 4.4% below the Bloomberg-compiled consensus.

Black also noted that Tesla forecaster Troy Teslike’s final second-quarter estimate is at 423,000 units, upwardly revised from his prior estimate of 416,000 units.

Commenting on the estimates, Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, said, “420 seems low but a special number.” Gerber and Black are among the fund managers who have trimmed their Tesla holdings amid the stock’s downturn. They have been highly critical of some management strategies, with Gerber particularly critical of CEO Elon Musk’s reduced focus on his flagship electric-vehicle venture and the board’s failure to its fiduciary duty.

Gerber apparently feels Black’s below-consensus estimate is still a low number. His reference to 420 as a special number is due to the fact that it is a cannabis-culture-related number. Incidentally, Musk also has a fascination for the number and often references it mostly jovially in his posts on his social-media platform X.

See Also: How to Buy Tesla Stock

Why It’s Important: The second-quarter deliveries update is a key catalyst that can add further momentum to the rally Tesla shares have witnessed in recent sessions following a protracted downturn. The stock rose 6.05% on Monday before ending at $209.86, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Tesla's first-quarter deliveries fell 8.5% year-over-year and over 20% sequentially to 386,810 units.

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives pins his hope on a “mini-rebound” in Tesla sales that may have occurred toward quarter-end. The analyst believes that the second-quarter softness has already been absorbed by the market. Now, investors are intensely focused on the company’s trajectory in the second half of the year, particularly its progress in AI and robotics, and the upcoming Robotaxi event on Aug. 8.

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Read Next: EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Delivery Prediction Expert Expects Lower Numbers Than Analysts, Says China ‘Not Exactly A Recovery’

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