Elon Musk Predicts Jobs Will Become Obsolete — But He Foresees A 'High Universal Income' That Acts As An Equalizer

Imagine a world where traditional jobs become obsolete, yet everyone enjoys a high standard of living. This isn’t a plot from a science fiction novel; it’s the future envisioned by tech mogul Elon Musk.

Speaking at the inaugural AI Safety Summit in the U.K. in November, the entrepreneur and CEO envisioned a future where AI makes traditional employment obsolete but ushers in an "age of abundance" through a system of "universal high income." While AI will replace jobs, Musk doesn't think people will be left scrambling to find ways to survive financially. 

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Musk explained to U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, "It's hard to say exactly what that moment is, but there will come a point where no job is needed. You can have a job if you want a job for personal satisfaction, but the AI will be able to do everything."

While acknowledging his vision may make people uncomfortable, Musk conveyed optimism about a "protopian" AI-driven future, where everyone will have access to advanced AI capable of answering any question. He believes this development will significantly impact education, serving as an exceptional tutor. He also envisions an era of abundance with no shortage of goods and services.

Musk's idea of universal high income builds on universal basic income (UBI), supported by other tech leaders like Sam Altman. UBI typically involves recurring cash payments to all adults in a population, regardless of their wealth or employment status, with no restrictions on how they spend the money.

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"We won't have universal basic income. We'll have universal high income," Musk said, though he did not specify the difference. He explained that it'll be somewhat of an "equalizer." He has previously addressed this topic, tweeting in 2018: "Universal income will be necessary over time if AI takes over most human jobs." However, it seems now he believes that it'll be a "high" UBI. 

His predictions align with recent discussions and experiments around UBI, especially following the success of the expanded child tax credit in 2021. The temporary increase and changes in the tax credit distribution showed how direct cash payments could lift millions out of poverty without reducing workforce participation. The expansion, which lifted 3.7 million children out of poverty by December 2021, demonstrated the positive societal impact of well-designed cash assistance.

While no country has fully implemented a universal basic income that covers essential needs, the U.S. has seen hints of its potential through programs like the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend and the expanded child tax credit. These initiatives offer empirical evidence that a "universal high income" system could help address poverty and inequality in the future, which will be shaped by AI's impact on traditional jobs.

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Musk has been vocal about UBI for several years. In 2017, at the World Government Summit in Dubai, he discussed the necessity of UBI in mitigating the social challenges posed by advanced robotics and AI. He said, "High-tech mechanization will make it necessary for states to provide citizens with a basic income to ease social inequality." Musk emphasized that the rapid technological changes led to "a massive social challenge" and that UBI would become necessary.

Musk's comments at the Viva Technology conference in Paris further emphasized his belief in an AI-driven future where humans are relieved from traditional work. He speculated that there is an 80% chance that AI will replace all human jobs, raising questions about the meaning and purpose of life when machines can perform tasks better than humans.

Musk's comments and evidence from recent UBI-related policies highlight ongoing debates about automation's economic impacts. While Musk suggests the world must prepare for a radical redefinition of work, Mark Cuban predicts that the first trillionaire will emerge from mastering AI, potentially revolutionizing industries and economies. This highlights the need for policies ensuring economic stability and social well-being amid such technological advancements. 

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