Tesla Inc. TSLA bull Gary Black on Friday raised his price target on the EV giant’s shares from $200 to $270 in addition to revising his estimates for the company’s full-year vehicle delivery volume and earnings per share.
What Happened: The Future Fund Managing Partner increased his adjusted EPS (earnings per share) estimate for 2024 to $2.4 from $2.2 while adding that Tesla will likely deliver 1,707,000 vehicles for the whole year, down from the 1,808,581 units delivered in 2023.
Despite the increase, Black’s estimates are still behind Wall Street estimates of an adjusted EPS of $2.46 and deliveries of 1,804,000 units for the year.
For 2030, however, Black is more optimistic. The analyst now estimates an adjusted EPS of $15 for Tesla in 2030, up from his previous $14.5 estimate, and much higher than Wall Street estimate of $12.
The long-term estimate revision is based on several upsides Black sees for Tesla including an increase in global EV adoption rate by 2030, an increase in take rate for Tesla’s full self-driving driver assistance technology, and also a hike in gross profits from the company’s energy storage segment.
Black, however, assumed no incremental value for either Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi or its humanoid robot Optimus in a move that he acknowledged as “ultra-conservative.”
Why It Matters: Black’s revision comes at a time when Tesla’s stock is on the rise. The company's second-quarter delivery numbers beat estimates, igniting a stock rally and reversing losses so far this year.
Talking about the recent rally, former Ford Motor Co. CEO Mark Fields said in an appearance on CNBC, “I think what’s ironic is that Musk has been- Musk wants Tesla to be a robotics and AI company, but their stock turnaround was driven by the autos.”
Fields is referring to Tesla CEO Elon Musk‘s attempts to turn Tesla into an AI, robotics, and sustainable energy company in addition to an automaker with an increased push toward diverse fields such as robotics, energy storage, and autonomous driving.
Price Action: Tesla shares closed up 2.1% at $251.52 on Friday. The stock is up 1.25% year-to-date, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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