iPhone16 Projections Questioned: Ming-Chi Kuo Says Expecting Apple Intelligence To Drive Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'

Top analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has cast doubt on the anticipated surge in Apple Inc.’s AAPL upcoming smartphone series, iPhone 16 sales.

What Happened: On Thursday, Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities stated that Apple has not ramped up its iPhone 16 orders, contrary to certain reports.

His latest observation came after the latest earnings reports from Apple suppliers TSMC and Largan. Neither TSMC nor Largan have reported an increase in unit growth, and Largan’s orders for high-end models in 2024 are on par with those of the previous year, according to Kuo.

Kuo estimates that Apple’s iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are around 87 million units, lower than the 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered in 2023.

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While some suppliers may have been asked to increase production, Kuo suggests this could be due to “specific reasons within individual industries or components.”

He also expressed doubt over the belief that the new Apple Intelligence feature will significantly drive iPhone 16 sales.

“Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic,” Kuo stated.

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Why It Matters: The iPhone 16 series was expected to trigger an AI-driven upgrade “supercycle.” Kuo previously also said that the upcoming smartphone series may not come with significant hardware changes.

Apple was reportedly counting on AI services to fuel demand for its new lineup after a challenging 2023. The company aimed to ship at least 90 million iPhone 16 devices in the latter half of this year, targeting about 10% growth in shipments of new iPhones compared with their predecessors.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.