AI: Hype Machine or Hidden Gem? The Great Tech Debate And What It Means For Your Wallet

AI has been widely touted as the way of the future. Major tech firms are investing billions in developing AI, while some scientists working on it have signed an open letter warning of its dangers. 

On the other hand, the average American is left worrying if AI will replace their job. Most people are far more worried about losing a job than AI becoming a monster that could put any Sci-Fi movie to shame.

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In a recent episode of NPR’s The Indicator from Planet Money, hosts asked the same question: Is AI all it’s cracked up to be? And is it actually after your job?

First, the logical arguments. Host Greg Wrozowski makes the same arguments many of us tell ourselves:

1. AI isn’t truly intelligent. Instead, it’s a sophisticated way of aggregating internet content rather than genuine intelligence. It can’t replace human creativity and true reasoning (although with basic mathematical functions, in particular, AI can come close).
2. More alarmingly, AI often produces false information. The industry calls these errors “hallucinations,” But they occur in 3-27% of responses. 
3. And most importantly, AI is incapable of replacing most human jobs. For example, attempts at automating drive-thru orders failed miserably.

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Experts concur, with MIT economist Daron Acemoglu, one of the leading economic scholars of technology, stating that AI’s impact on the economy in the next decade will be limited.

When asked if we should expect AI to usher in revolutionary changes for the economy in the next decade, he replied, “No. No, definitely not. I mean, unless you count a lot of companies over-investing in generative AI and then regretting it as a revolutionary change.”

Experts like Acemoglu aren’t afraid to mince words, calling AI a glorified photocopier passing human work as its own or a copycat. In addition, in many cases, AI is copying or reformulating copyrighted material. At least 15 high-profile lawsuits against AI companies asserting copyright infringement have been filed. 

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What about jobs? According to Acemoglu, AI will affect less than 5% of human tasks in the economy. Other experts suggest that AI could help automate the most tedious tasks in most industries rather than replace humans entirely. And we can expect AI to barely touch many sectors, like construction and food service.

So your job is safe for now, but should you invest in AI? That discussion is more murky. AI may not significantly boost productivity or economic growth in the near future.

Whether AI will improve exponentially depends on the infrastructure costs to keep up with data needs. If not, developers could experience substantial slowdowns due to data limitations and cost restrictions. On the other hand, AI might still develop in unexpected ways that lead to exponential growth and significant gains in as little as a few years. 

Is AI a hidden gem? It could be, eventually. But for now, don’t underestimate human capabilities and our own ability to learn and adapt before assuming computers have it all figured out.

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