Bank Of England Reduces 16-Year High Interest Rates In Divided Decision As Inflation Hits 2%

The Bank of England (BoE) reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time after over four years, bringing it down from a 16-year high of 5.25% to 5%.

The Monetary Policy Committee was divided, with five members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, voting for a rate cut while four favored maintaining the current rate. The vote split was broadly predicted by market participants.

"It is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness," the monetary policy statement said.

BoE Sees Inflation Below Target In 2 Years, As Economic Slack Emerges

The BoE justified the decision by highlighting that despite the recent positive growth readings, restrictive monetary policies are dampening real economic activity, loosening the labor market, and curbing inflationary pressures.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation aligned with the BoE’s 2% target in May and June, holding steady at the lowest levels in three years.

The BoE projected inflation to rise to approximately 2.75% in the latter half of this year, as the base effect from last year's energy price declines fades. CPI is anticipated to decrease to 1.7% in two years and 1.5% in three years, aided by sustained restrictive monetary policy and emerging economic slack.

The BoE predicts economic slack will become more evident in 2025, persisting due to ongoing restrictive monetary policies. A slight rise in unemployment is anticipated as the labor market adjusts.

Expectations for the Bank rate are 4.2% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026, and 3.5% in 2027, reflecting a gradual easing of monetary policy as inflation risks abate and the economy cools.

Market Reactions: Pound Falls, UK stocks Hold Steady

The British pound, monitored via the Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Trust FXB, remained broadly stable after the decision, but it had fallen 0.5% on the day against the dollar.

UK equities, as monitored through the iShares United Kingdom ETF EWU, were flat for the day.

US-listed mega-cap British companies’ premarket performances:

• AstraZeneca PLC AZN: Down 0.3%
• Shell plc SHEL: Up 0.8%
• HSBC Holdings, plc HSBC: Down over 5%
• Arm Holdings plc ARM: Down over 9%
• Unilever PLC UL: Down 0.5%
• Rio Tinto Plc RIO: Down 1%

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.