Lyft's Ride Gets Bumpy: Earnings Expected To Fall Short While Market Shifts

LYFT Inc. LYFT is poised to miss on earnings when it reports second-quarter results on Thursday as it faces concerns over consumer trends and market share, analysts say.

KeyBanc Capital Markets forecasts earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization to come in at $97 million for the quarter, below analyst consensus of $101 million. It expects gross bookings of $4.05 billion to narrowly miss Wall Street expectations of $4.06 billion.

“We believe many ridesharing use cases are more resilient to macro but do believe riders can opt for cheaper alternatives like public transportation in some scenarios,” KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson said in a note.

“Thus, we believe consumer strength trends will be important to monitor.”

RBC Capital Markets expects Lyft to post $97.5 million in EBITDA for the second quarter, below analyst consensus of $98.1 million, and $4.053 billion in bookings that will miss analyst expectations of $4.058 billion.

Read Also: Lyft Competing In Lock-step With Uber Technologies: Analysts Eye ‘Multiple Shots’ On Goal For Growth

“Our recent driver supply analysis, conducted in July ’24, indicated some erosion in rider pick-up times, where pick-up times for UBER came down significantly compared to LYFT,” RBC analyst Brad Erickson said in a note.

“Although we have noticed some fluctuation in both directions for UBER and LYFT in terms of pickup times and total travel time, we believe this is not necessarily a red flag but worth monitoring.”

RBC has also noticed “some weakness” in Lyft’s data related to third-party arrangements with DoorDash and other delivery services.

“It is important to note price continues to move in lock-step, giving us confidence LYFT continues to keep pace with its major competitor,” Erickson wrote.

Uber Technologies Inc. UBER reported fiscal second-quarter 2024 revenue growing 16% year-on-year to $10.7 billion, beating Wall Street consensus of $10.57 billion. The company also posted GAAP EPS of 47 cents; analysts consensus expectations were 31 cents.

Price Action: Lyft gained 3.03% to $10.89 as of Tuesday’s mid-day trading.

Most exchange-traded funds that track Lyft also advanced on Tuesday.

• Trenchless Fund ETF RVER gained 1.74%.
• ProShares On-Demand ETF OND slipped 2.83%.
• Amplify Travel Tech ETF AWAY picked up 2.23%.
• SPDR S&P Transportation ETF XTN rose 2.23%.
• Amplify Online Retail RTF IBUY edged up 0.91%.

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