JD Vance Blames 20 Million Migrants For Housing Crisis – Economists Say He's Missing The Point

In a Tuesday interview with Fox News, Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance offered a straightforward diagnosis for the housing affordability crisis gripping much of the United States – the presence of 20 million “illegal aliens” competing for scarce homes.

However, leading housing economists argue that Vance’s assessment is oversimplified and misleading at worst.

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“The reason housing costs are so high is straightforward, a lack of supply,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, posted on X, formerly Twitter. “I wish pundits would get to the point and ask candidates, ‘How do you plan to increase the supply of housing?'”

A broad consensus among housing experts echoes Fairweather’s assessment. Years of underinvestment in new home construction and restrictive zoning policies that limit density in many American communities have created a steep shortfall in the number of available homes. According to Business Insider, which cited Zillow estimates, the U.S. is short about 4.5 million homes. 

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Vance, named former President Donald Trump’s running mate last month, has previously linked the housing crisis to high interest rates and the Biden administration’s policies. However, the former president’s plans to deport millions of immigrants as a way to address affordability have drawn criticism from economists.

“Deporting millions of people and restricting new immigration could slow the pace of new housing construction by reducing the immigrant labor force that makes up a disproportionate portion of construction workers,” Business Insider noted.

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Further, the data does not support the idea that undocumented immigrants are the primary driver of high housing costs. Estimates from the Migration Policy Institute suggest that only about three million illegal immigrants live in owner-occupied homes – a fraction of the total housing market.

Experts say the affordability issue is due to a combination of factors, including the lingering effects of the 2008 financial crisis, the pandemic-fueled housing boom, and long-standing policies that have encouraged homeownership at the expense of building enough new homes.

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“The reasons for the increase in housing prices are much more complicated than Vance describes,” the National Review wrote last month. “Adding to all of these broader considerations are the more acute ones that drove up housing prices during the pandemic.”

As the 2024 election cycle heats up, the housing crisis is poised to be a major campaign issue. Vance’s attempt to tie it to immigration may score political points, but it does little to address the underlying structural problems. 

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