Jackson Hole Preview: 5 Important Questions Ahead Of Jerome Powell's Fed Speech

Traders are anxiously awaiting the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium. This highly anticipated event could set the tone for the Fed’s future policy actions, especially as investors anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting.

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pivotal speech on Friday at 10 a.m. ET, where he is expected to provide crucial insights into the economic outlook and the central bank’s rate-cut plans.

Here are five important questions answered about this year's Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Thursday and Friday.

1. What Is Jackson Hole?

The Jackson Hole Symposium is a prominent late-summer economic conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

The event attracts central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world and takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

2. Why Should Investors Focus On Jackson Hole?

Generally, the Jackson Hole Symposium holds particular importance for two key reasons: it occurs during the longest gap between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, offering potential clues on future monetary policy. It also takes place in August, when market activity is typically quieter due to summer holidays and a scarcity of other significant events.

Regarding the 2024 event, while a rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting is considered as a done deal by markets, investors are keenly focused on how quickly the Fed will proceed with additional cuts and what the economic outlook will be, with a special focus on inflation and the jobs market.

3. How Will Jackson Hole Be Covered?

Powell's speech at 10 a.m. ET Friday will be live-streamed, but the rest of the symposium's speeches will not be televised.

Although there isn't live coverage of the other sessions, major business networks typically feature a series of sideline interviews with key attendees, such as Fed officials, who could provide near-term views on monetary policy.

4. What Do Wall Street Analysts Expect From Jackson Hole This Year?

“The easiest thing for Chair Powell would be to repeat his message from July. An evolution of the July FOMC language would suggest the committee is ‘very close’ or ‘close’ to the point where easing is likely to occur,” noted Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated, “He is likely to support market expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September. But he is also likely to push back on expectations of cuts in November and December. He will repeat that the Fed’s decisions are data dependent.”

Goldman Sachs analysts “expect to hear more comments like those from Goolsbee earlier in August that the Fed’s job is not to react to a single data point.” However, they also expect the Fed to reassure markets that it stands ready to act swiftly should the economy take a turn for the worse.

Greg Marcus, managing director, UBS Private Wealth Management, expects Jerome Powell “to hint strongly at rate cuts and try to calm the market. He'll make it clear that the Fed will be data dependent and won't commit to any one position but will continue to emphasize the importance of not forgetting that the Fed has a dual mandate.”

5. How Has the Stock Market Performed Historically During Jackson Hole?

Historically, the Jackson Hole Symposium has had a muted impact on the S&P 500's performance.

A Benzinga analysis of the past 10 events shows that the S&P 500 has generally remained flat during the symposium days (Thursday and Friday), with an average decline of 0.4% and a median return of 0%.

When extending the analysis to the entire week, the index shows a slightly better performance, with an average gain of 0.4% and a median return of 0.8%.

Over the past 10 events, the S&P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, recorded positive returns in six instances during the symposium days and in seven instances over the entire week.

Notable market reactions to the Jackson Hole events included 2022, 2019 and 2015.

In 2022, Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a 3.4% drop in the S&P 500 over two days, with the index down 4% for the week due to fears of prolonged high interest rates.

In 2019, uncertainty from Powell’s speech amid the U.S.-China trade war led to a 2.9% decline during the symposium days and a 1.4% loss for the week.

In contrast, 2015 saw the S&P 500 rise 2.43% during the symposium and 0.8% for the week, as markets were reassured by the Fed

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.