Texas Instruments Inc TXN might be gearing up for a substantial upside. Citigroup increased its price target for its stock from $200 to $235. Analyst Christopher Danely upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

Additionally, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur has outlined a potential 30% surge in the company’s stock price by December 2025.

Texas Instruments Stock’s Fair Value Could Hit $275 by 2026

In a recent capital management strategy update, Texas Instruments laid out a scenario analysis. The analysis centered around driving approximately $9 of free cash flow per share by 2026.

JPMorgan’s Sur remains confident in the stock, maintaining an Overweight rating with a price target of $230 by December 2025. With the current price hovering around $200 — that’s a straight 30% upside from current price levels.

However, the analyst believes the fair value could be as high as $250 to $275 per share, based on a 28-30x free cash flow multiple, by 2026.

Strong Revenue Growth, Strategic Expansion

“TI's business strategy has not changed, and the team continues to see a strong, albeit more reasonable 7%-9% revenue CAGR going forward,” Sur noted.

This growth is expected to be driven by increased semiconductor content, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors — both key markets for the company.

Additionally, the company's strategic build-out of its 300mm, low-cost U.S. manufacturing capacity will benefit from the evolving geopolitical landscape.

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Flexibility in Capex Spending

Sur highlighted Texas Instruments’ robust approach to capital management, emphasizing the company’s ability to scale capex spending flexibly based on demand.

“Under this investment phase, the team has more scalability of capex and is able to drive higher free cash flow per share growth across a range of market conditions,” he explained.

Best-In-Class FCF, Dividend Growth

As Texas Instruments emerges from a heavy investment cycle, Sur expects the company to deliver “best-in-class free cash flow per share and dividend growth over the longer term.”

Sur projects the company's gross margins will trend higher. He sees a return to a 25%-35% free cash flow margin target by 2026.

With Texas Instruments positioned as a leader in high-value analog and embedded products, Sur sees the stock as a high-quality investment. With above-average leverage, broad-based market exposure, and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy, Texas Instruments is poised for better days ahead.

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