David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, shared his predictions for the forthcoming speech from the Federal Reserve chief in Jackson Hole.
What Happened: Mericle suggested that a cut is broadly agreed upon by the committee following the latest Federal Reserve minutes. The uncertainty lies in whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. He expects Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to present a more dovish version of the comments made after the July FOMC meeting.
“I suspect what we will get from Powell tomorrow is a more dovish version of the remarks that we gave after the July FOMC meeting; a little bit more dovish, a little bit more confident on inflation, a little bit more concerned about the labor market,” Mericle said while appearing for CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime.”
He also conveyed his expectation that the August employment report would show an improvement over July’s. In this case, he forecasts a 25 basis point cut in September. He also pointed to potential risks, such as a quicker pace of cutting if Powell shows increased concern over the labor market or the current level of the funds rate.
See Also: Jobs Data Could Be Off By 1 Million When Labor Department Revises Figures: What It Means For The Fed
On the topic of inflation fears, Mericle indicated that the committee is “moving beyond that,” given the recent positive inflation data.
“The people who were more concerned will kind of move toward where the rest of the committee is and say, ‘you know, we are kind of over this problem,’ and be more ready to cut,” he said, adding that the larger issue is the perceived downside risk in the labor market and whether it warrants a more aggressive move.
Why It Matters: Investors’ expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting have been strengthened by the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which highlighted continued progress in disinflation. This has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Investors are keenly watching for any short-term monetary policy guidance from Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, as the market has historically been sensitive to his remarks.
Members of the Federal Reserve, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, have hinted at a potential shift towards lowering interest rates as early as September, just before Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
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