Zinger Key Points
- Analysts project a 9.8% post-earnings stock move, with Nvidia shares up 159% year-to-date.
- Top Nvidia-focused ETFs include ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), with 30.69% exposure, up 136% YTD.
Nvidia Corp. NVDA is set to report its highly anticipated earnings Wednesday, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
As the undisputed leader in the AI revolution, Nvidia’s results will be a critical indicator for the broader market, particularly for those invested in semiconductor and technology sectors.
This highly followed market event offers both risk and opportunity. For traders seeking to capitalize on Nvidia's earnings without the direct exposure to single-stock volatility, ETFs with substantial Nvidia holdings present an appealing alternative.
Nvidia Earnings Expectations: A High Bar Set
Wall Street has set an ambitious target for Nvidia this quarter, with revenue expected to hit $28.74 billion — a staggering 17% increase from the previous quarter and an eye-popping 156% jump from the same quarter last year.
Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise to 65 cents, up from 56 cents in the prior quarter and 21 cents in the same period last year.
Goldman Sachs’ semiconductor analyst, Toshiya Hari, is bullish on Nvidia’s prospects, predicting the company will surpass these already lofty expectations.
“We believe customer demand across the large Cloud Service Providers and enterprises is strong, and Nvidia’s robust competitive position in AI/accelerated computing remains intact,” Hari stated in a note published this month.
The driving force behind this optimism? Data Center revenues and strong operating leverage. Hari highlights three key areas: robust demand for the H100 GPUs, the launch of volume shipments of the H200, and the ramp-up of Nvidia’s Ethernet-based networking product, Spectrum-X. These factors could fuel a significant earnings beat, potentially leading to upward revisions in EPS.
Shares of the AI tech giant are up 159% year to date, after surging by 239% in 2023.
Historical Volatility: A Look At Past Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia’s stock has a history of sharp rallies post-earnings, with an average one-day boost of 9% over the past eight quarters and 7.1% over the last four.
A Goldman Sachs analysis identified the VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH as having the highest average post-earnings move (3.4%) following Nvidia's past eight earnings releases.
It was followed by the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX at 2.9% and the ARK Innovation ETF ARKK at 2.4%.
Top 10 ETFs With Nvidia Exposure
For traders looking to gain exposure to Nvidia's potential earnings-driven rally, here are 10 ETFs with the largest holdings in the stock:
| ETF Name | Nvidia Weight % | YTD Performance (%) |
|---|---|---|
| ProShares Ultra Semiconductors USD | 30.69% | 136% |
| Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF SHOC | 29.54% | 19.2% |
| Simplify Volt RoboCar Disruption VCAR | 22.83% | 12.7% |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 21.95% | 41.3% |
| The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK | 21.29% | 16.7% |
| Grizzle Growth ETF DARP | 20.32% | 13.9% |
| Franklin Focused Growth ETF FFOG | 18.07% | 26.4% |
| iShares Global Tech ETF (IXN) | 17.55% | 21.6% |
| iShares ESG Advanced MSCI USA ETF USXF | 16.05% | 22.4% |
| SoFi Select 500 ETF SFY | 15.96% | 20.5% |
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