Gene Munster Downgrades Estimates In Light Of 'EV Winter,' Sees Electric Vehicles Accounting For Just 25% Of New Car Sales In 2030

Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster now expects electric vehicles to account for only 25% of new car sales in the U.S. in 2030, down from his earlier forecast of 50%.

What Happened: “We're updating our US EV market forecast to reflect the EV Winter,” Munster said on Friday, referring to the current slowdown in the pace of EV adoption.

Munster attributes the slowdown to consumer anxiety regarding the availability of charging infrastructure and range in addition to the higher cost of EVs as compared to gas vehicles. The consumer hesitation has caused traditional automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis to scale back EV investment, further aggravating the slowdown, Munster said.

Deepwater now expects the EV industry to cross the 50% of new car sales threshold only by 2036.

Forecasts for EV Giant Tesla: Munster now sees Tesla growing its deliveries in the U.S. by an average of 15% per year with the EV giant’s US market share at about 40% in 2030. According to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, Tesla had a market share of 49.7% in the second quarter of 2024 with 164,264 sales.

Though Munster sees this market share drop, he still believes Tesla will sell 1.8 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2030.

“The reason is we believe Tesla's continued investment in EV production will yield the best vehicle for the price. That means consumers will view Tesla as the best value in EVs, which should support a much higher market share…” Munster said.

Silver Lining: Munster, however, believes electrification is the future, and spring is coming in the form of over 30 new EV models slated to be released through the end of 2025. This includes Tesla’s Model 2, the next generation of the Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Chrysler EV Crossover, and Lucid Gravity, among others.

“While the adoption curve is taking longer than anticipated we believe an electrification is the future,” Munster said.

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