Trump Leads Harris On Polymarket, Dominates Swing States: Bettors At Odds With National Polls

Prediction data favors former President Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential race — a stark contrast to national polls.

What Happened: Trump commands a 53% chance of victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, who has 46%, according to gamblers on Polymarket.

This 7-point lead is based on over $800 million in wagers. Trump has a $105 million bet on his win compared to Harris’s $98 million, highlighting a significant gap in market confidence as of Sept. 5.

The state-by-state breakdown further amplifies the Republican nominee’s advantage:

• Arizona, Trump leads 60% to 40%
• Georgia, 58% to 42%
• Pennsylvania, 53% to 47%.
• Nevada, 52% to 48%.

See Also: Harris Super PAC Now Accepts Cryptocurrency

Polymarket’s trend chart reveals Trump’s consistent lead since March, contrasting with Harris’s July surge that peaked in August before slightly declining.

Notably, President Joe Biden‘s chances in this market dropped to 0% in August.

Harris maintains leads in Wisconsin (56% to 44%) and Michigan (59% to 41%).

While coastal states predominantly favor Harris, the interior of the country leans heavily towards Trump in this forecast.

Why It Matters: This division underscores the potential for swing states to play a decisive role in the election’s outcome, according to this speculative data.

While bettors are banking on the former, twice-impeached president to win on Nov. 5, the national polls kept by FiveThirtyEight paint a different picture. Harris is outpacing Trump on the political website with 47 percent support to 44 percent.

Today, a new Emerson College Polling national survey finds Harris with 49% support, and Trump with 47% support among likely U.S. voters.

And Allan Lichtman, a historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, forecasts a Harris victory.

As the political drama unfolds, the financial world is also bracing for potential impacts.

The Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event, scheduled for Nov. 19 aims to explore the intersection of digital assets and traditional markets, potentially offering insights into how the crypto landscape might evolve post-election.

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