Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have gained an edge over former President Donald Trump following their first presidential debate on Tuesday, according to prediction markets and initial polling data.
What Happened: Prediction market platform Polymarket shows bettors strongly favoring Harris’s performance in the debate.
As of the latest data, the market gives Harris a 99% chance of being declared the winner in the Ipsos/538 poll, up from around 78% before the start of the debate.
Furthermore, Polymarket participants expect Harris to gain more in the polls after the debate, with the market giving her a 82% chance of seeing a larger polling boost compared to Trump’s 18%. Pre-debate data rated Harris’s chances only around 61%.
Early polling data seems to support these market predictions.
Political commentator Nick Field shared on X (formerly Twitter) that initial data suggests Harris may have outperformed expectations.
Providing more context to this shift, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, which surveyed 566 registered voters who watched the debate, found that 42% believed Harris did a better job, while 33% favored Trump’s performance. Another 25% viewed their performances as equal.
Despite these indicators favoring Harris, the cryptocurrency community appears to be more skeptical of her performance. Notable figures in the crypto space have expressed contrasting views on social media platform X.
Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente, tweeted: “Regardless of your political views, there’s no way you can watch this debate and think Kamala is winning. Trump is running laps around her right now.”
Crypto trader Luke Martin echoed this sentiment, stating: “I don’t care about politics but there is a 0% chance Kamala won this debate if you’re being objective. Maybe the worst political performance I’ve ever seen.”
This divergence in opinion highlights the complex relationship between politics and the digital asset sector. The crypto community’s reaction could be attributed to its historically favorable stance towards Trump, who has been seen as more crypto-friendly in his policies and rhetoric.
Tim Miller, a political strategist and former Republican operative, has indicated skepticism about Trump’s debate performance.
Despite being from the same side of the political aisle as Trump, Miller’s actions suggest he found aspects of Trump’s showing problematic.
The success of this debate has led to speculation about future face-offs between Harris and Trump.
Polymarket has opened betting on whether another debate will occur, with current odds showing a 43% chance of another debate happening.
While Harris has expressed readiness for future debates, reports suggest Trump may be hesitant to participate in additional encounters.
What’s Next: The upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 is poised to provide further insights into how political developments may impact the digital asset landscape.
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