Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High, Inflation Expectations Ease: 'Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Inched Up'

The average American consumer is more optimistic than expected in September, data shows.

According to the University of Michigan’s September Survey of Consumers, the consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in four months, surpassing economic estimates.

This surge reflects improvements in both current conditions and future expectations, driven by lower inflation worries and more favorable price conditions.

See Also: Latest Poll Hands Vice President Harris 5-Point Lead Over Trump

Key Highlights:

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 67.9 August to 69 points in September, marking a 1.6% monthly surge and surpassing economist estimates – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of 68.
• The sub-index for consumer expectations increased from 72.1 to 73 points, topping expectations of a decline to 71.
• The sub-index for current conditions rose from 61.3 to 62.9, surpassing estimates of 61.5.
• The year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.8% to 2.7%, the lowest in nearly four years, below forecasts of 2.8%. Long-term inflation expectations inched slightly higher from 3% to 3.1%.

Economist Takeaways

“The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets,” said University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. 

Consumer sentiment is now roughly 40% higher than its June 2022 low, though caution remains widespread due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election, according to the expert.

However, there is contrasting sentiment between Democratic and Republican consumers as Election Day approaches and Vice President Kamala Harris widens the lead over Ex-President Donald Trump in preliminary polls.

Hsu highlighted that “partisan gaps in sentiment inched up,” amid consumers’ opposing views on the economic impact of her potential presidency.

Market Reactions

Stocks extended their gains following the sentiment report. By 10:15 a.m. in New York, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up 0.4%, while the tech-focused Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ edged 0.2% higher.

Small caps led the rally, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM surging 2%. Blue chips, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA, rose 0.5%.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund XLB leading the way, up 1%, supported by strength in precious metals.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP slipping 0.4%. The dollar also dropped 0.9% against the Japanese yen, hitting levels last seen in late December 2023.

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