Donald Trump made headlines again after claiming inflation is “probably the worst in our nation's history” during a recent debate with Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump didn't hold back, calling inflation a “country buster” and saying, “We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before.” However, experts are raising their eyebrows at his bold statement.
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While inflation has been higher than usual in recent years, saying it's the worst ever is a stretch. Inflation did hit a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022 under President Joe Biden's watch, but historically, the U.S. has seen worse. In the 1980s, inflation surged past 14% and during World War I, it reached 17.8%. So, Trump's claim doesn't quite match the numbers.
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Today's reality is that inflation has cooled to 2.9% year-over-year as of July, the lowest since March 2021. The 0.2% rise from June shows a slow climb and Biden hasn't been shy about touting this as a win. Still, experts caution that inflation is tricky and presidents don't have total control over it.
"Presidents don't control inflation," pointed out Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody's Analytics. "It's driven by many factors, including supply chain disruptions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global events like the Russia-Ukraine war."
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While Trump blames Vice President Harris for casting a critical vote to advance the American Rescue Plan Act, experts note that both Trump's and Biden's pandemic stimulus efforts contributed to inflation by spiking demand while the world was still reeling from supply chain chaos.
Harris, for her part, has been vocal about cracking down on price gouging and promises to target what she calls "reflation" if elected. However, some economists aren't convinced, saying price-gouging restrictions could backfire. Research shows markup patterns during the pandemic recovery are similar to past recoveries.
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Trump has his own ideas. He's pitched higher tariffs on imported goods and lowering taxes to combat inflation. But here's the kicker: experts largely disagree. Many believe his proposed tariffs would hurt the economy by raising consumer costs and slowing economic growth.
According to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump's policies could lead to higher unemployment and reduced consumer spending – exactly what the economy doesn't need.
With the 2024 election approaching, 81% of registered voters say the economy will be the most important issue, according to a recent Pew Research poll. However, the jury's still out on who's got the better plan. A slim majority believe Trump would handle the economy better than Harris, though experts remain divided.
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