Bitcoin Is 97% Sure To Close The Month Above $60K—But What Are The Chances It Even Hits $70K?

According to Polymarket traders, Bitcoin BTC/USD is almost guaranteed to remain above $60,000 until the end of the month but even hitting $70,000 seems a possibility after the latest rally.

What Happened: Polymarket traders assign a 97% chance of Bitcoin trading above $60,000 on noon of Oct.1. Another market shows a 68% probability of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in 2024.

Analytics provider Santiment shows a poll, where around 44.8% of the 770 votes cast at the time of writing think Bitcoin could reach $70,000 by October, an almost equal split with the 44% believing the apex crypto will not have a late surge. Around 11% are indifferent.

This is markedly more bullish than sentiment on Polymarket, where traders see only a 13% chance of Bitcoin still hitting $70,000 by next Tuesday.

Also Read: Bitcoin’s Price Rally Could Be Driven By Multiple Factors In Coming Months: Standard Chartered

What Traders Think: Crypto influencer Scott Melker opines that Bitcoin may be on the brink of a parabolic bull run, with a potential shift in market structure. He highlighted that Bitcoin is attempting to confirm its first higher high since it peaked at $74,000 in March.

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The crypto king's close above $65,000 would indicate a new uptrend from the lows in the $50,000s in August, and the start of a bullish market structure.

Melker also sees current market conditions mirror the halving cycles of the past, where a parabolic uptrend typically begins. He quoted, "We are days before “Uptober."

IntoTheBlock data shows large transaction volume increasing by 3.74% and daily active addresses up by 1.3%. Transactions greater than $100,000 are up from 8,415 to 9,065 in a single day. Exchanges netflows are down by 896.9%.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: 

• Bitcoin Shines As Hedge Against ‘Major Geopolitical Events,’ Says Research Firm

Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.