Fed Cuts Aren't the Key–Labor Will Decide Mortgage Rates, Expert Says

The recent Federal Reserve rate cut has set the stage for potentially lower mortgage rates but industry experts are looking beyond central bank policy to gauge where rates might land by year-end.

According to HousingWire’s lead analyst Logan Mohtashami, the labor market’s strength – or weakness – will determine how low mortgage rates can go.

Don't Miss:

• This Jeff Bezos-backed startup will allow you to become a landlord in just 10 minutes, and you only need $100.
• Beating the market through ethical real estate investing' — this platform aims to give tenants equity in the homes they live in while scoring 17.17% average annual returns for investors – here’s how to join with just $100

“The mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023,” Mohtashami wrote in an analysis issued this week. “We have seen a big move, which has helped, and we still have some runway left to return to historical norms. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%.”

At the start of the year, Mohtashami forecast a range of 5.75% to 7.25% for 30-year rates by the end of 2024. Now, with the average 30-year conforming loan rate sitting at 6.18% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily, that prediction is looking increasingly likely.

See Also: A billion-dollar investment strategy with minimums as low as $10 — you can become part of the next big real estate boom today.

The recent downward trend in rates has breathed some life into the housing market, with purchase applications rising for four consecutive weeks – the longest streak of the year, according to the report. However, the impact on home sales has been mixed.

While new home sales are on an upward trajectory, existing home sales continue to struggle, falling 2.5% month-over-month in August, per the National Association of Realtors.

Noah Rosenblatt, co-founder of UrbanDigs, a real estate analytics firm, cautions that the housing market has yet to fully stabilize. “We still have election uncertainty, local policy uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty that are weighing on investors’ and buyers’ minds that could dampen the depth and duration of this recovery,” Rosenblatt said.

Trending: Commercial real estate has historically outperformed the stock market, and this platform allows individuals to invest in commercial real estate with as little as $5,000 offering a 12% target yield with a bonus 1% return boost today!

Adding to the problem is the fact that many current homeowners are reluctant to sell and take on higher-rate mortgages. A Redfin analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency data cited by HousingWire showed that six in seven mortgage holders have rates below 6%, creating a “lock-in” effect that’s constraining inventory.

While upcoming economic data releases, including GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, are unlikely to move the needle on rates, according to Afifa Suburi, a capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans, all eyes are on the labor market.

Trending: These five entrepreneurs are worth $223 billion – they all believe in one platform that offers a 7-9% target yield with monthly dividends

Kevin Ryan, CFO of Better, noted in an interview with HousingWire that Fed policymakers appear more concerned with the labor market than inflation at this point. “The Fed presumably will continue to stay data dependent within this recalibration thing,” Ryan said. “I see a slowly thawing housing sector. If you wake up in 18 months’ time, you’re going to have rates materially lower.”

As the year progresses, labor market data, Fed policy, and mortgage spreads will determine whether rates can break below Mohtashami’s forecast range. 

Read Next:

• This billion-dollar fund has invested in the next big real estate boom, here's how you can join for $10.
• Amid the ongoing EV revolution, previously overlooked low-income communities now harbor a huge investment opportunity at just $500.